Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9164f7e9ecaa010460be88bce6644fe564c13c8d42f25698a43de4dccdc1b454
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rublevof Rublev, Buse
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Buse | 55c | 2,186$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.8 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e4…7e20backed Buse | 53c | 1,825$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.37 | 187 | 47.6%89 W · 98 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Rublev | 52c | 1,176$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.19 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe6…8192backed Buse | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 248 | 40.7%101 W · 147 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Rublev | 47c | 929.84$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.81 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Rublev | 47c | 593.87$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.75 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…e019backed Buse | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Rublev | 52c | 388.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.11 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Rublev | 46c | 337.27$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.13 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…3a0abacked Rublev | 53c | 306.21$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.92 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Buse | 46c | 282.77$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.07 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Rublev | 54c | 277.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.77 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9f0abacked Rublev | 47c | 274$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.22 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Rublev | 52c | 215.38$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf795…ab90backed Buse | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Buse | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Buse | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Buse | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Rublev | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97a1…d1eebacked Buse | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Buse | 53c | 179.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Rublev | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed Rublev | 52c | 173.31$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Buse | 53c | 148.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Rublev | 47c | 138.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…f376backed Rublev | 51c | 137.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Buse | 47c | 129$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 584 | 53.1%310 W · 274 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Buse | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Rublev | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…8fd2backed Buse | 49c | 95.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Buse | 50c | 71.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Rublev | 46c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Buse | 47c | 55.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa10…065abacked Rublev | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Buse | 48c | 49.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b89…f3a9backed Buse | 47c | 40.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Rublev | 49c | 32.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 545 | 41.7%227 W · 318 L | +18.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Buse | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…2506backed Buse | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 217 | 59.4%129 W · 88 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Buse | 47c | 23.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Buse | 48c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…b778backed Buse | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Rublev | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5)this page
- Buse vs. Rublev: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Buse vs. Rublev: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Ignacio Buse vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Ignacio Buse vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey RublevAndrey Rublev won
- Set 1 Winner: Buse vs RublevRublev won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-2.5) vs Buse (+2.5)Buse won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.