TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,705
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,534

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,705 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes31c2,429$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.471,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No68c1,042$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.9156543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes30c719.08$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.1560236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No65c622.11$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.871,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked No28c370.56$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No66c346.6$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No69c300$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20797152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No69c288.39$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.992,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No69c214$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.663,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No66c199$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.974,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c194.32$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No10c171.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.956322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes48c166.33$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2137056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No68c165.92$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.872,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes40c152.45$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.893,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c151.48$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.919,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No69c145.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2254853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed Yes79c136.75$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3838560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No28c130$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No61c125$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.871,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No70c113$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.13,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No62c111.42$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.632,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7063255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6918449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No16c99.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.316,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No58c94$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.242,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c92.73$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.915,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No69c91.6$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.21,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No41c89.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5239956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5548…9cc6backed Yes45c88.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3419757.4%113 W · 84 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No50c86.37$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1663323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No69c85.42$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.024,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes51c80.26$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.622,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked No60c78.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.393721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.2wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-58%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes68c74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.681,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes45c73.81$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4889544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes29c71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.572339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid+17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c69.95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.263,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c63.61$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.989,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed No33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes37c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.113637.5%51 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1458138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c55.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes26c53.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.434,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes39c51.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5920339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038c…b4e0backed Yes55c50.89$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.153259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes34c48.89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1489661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No65c46.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3047175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No71c44.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.754,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No61c42.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.152,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes44c41.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1765749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c40.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.437,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.815246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.87852.6%41 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb814…dd31backed No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.811154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.813351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.815345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3cf…ea22backed No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.84847.9%23 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No30c39.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6041…b027backed Yes42c38.42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.433060%18 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x418f…5f3bbacked Yes34c37.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.981172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No68c36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.558,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes67c36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8824841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked Yes77c34.64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1219662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes61c34.26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4999962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No65c33.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6371057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No65c30.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked No51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3215630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.252,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed Yes74c29.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.522,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8177…e5d4backed No66c29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.148976.4%68 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes55c28.55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.756157.4%35 W · 26 L+9.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No65c27.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No65c25.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2854867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked No65c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.253,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No69c23.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.234,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No61c22.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7176059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes50c22.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.021,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No65c21.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2528360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd73…3cc0backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146968.1%47 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1329769.4%206 W · 91 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1418254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed No68c19.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.311,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No71c19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4917457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No65c19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.261,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No68c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.227769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No69c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.455855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020574.6%153 W · 52 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.