Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacb490ee189690077f70aa31ea89400d239551eb0136ecfdccc9e626d7181713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 54c | 721.52$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.33 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 437.26$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 57c | 336.66$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.19 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 220.83$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 27c | 203.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 201.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 44c | 177$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 169.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 49c | 141.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 58c | 135.32$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 111.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 45c | 101.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 57c | 94.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 44c | 93.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 91.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 53c | 88.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 85.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 81.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 54c | 77.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 76.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 56.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 55.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 72c | 54.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 53c | 48.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 39c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 44c | 40.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 38.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 49c | 37.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 55c | 35.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 34.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 45c | 32.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 30.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 43c | 26.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 70c | 19.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 58c | 17.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.