TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heroicof Heroic, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,682
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,042

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,682 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x668d…e471backed Heroic56c6,571$3,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,872.055352.8%28 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Heroic51c5,820$2,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,840.121,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team45c5,516$2,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,458.656,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed BetBoom Team44c4,527$1,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,973.136634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Heroic45c4,235$1,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,320.52,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Heroic53c3,865$2,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,826.3939248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Heroic62c3,068$1,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.8849646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed BetBoom Team48c2,960$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.6424346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked BetBoom Team43c2,866$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.6613142.7%56 W · 75 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked BetBoom Team42c2,842$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2063,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team42c2,709$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.812,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Heroic45c2,611$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.782,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked Heroic75c2,582$1,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.395464.8%35 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Heroic48c1,947$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.9829831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heroic63c1,789$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.752,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked BetBoom Team35c1,615$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.6361228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x212e…791abacked BetBoom Team50c1,505$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.742755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed Heroic51c1,479$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.9925640.2%103 W · 153 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed Heroic53c1,479$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.8421941.1%90 W · 129 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed BetBoom Team46c1,417$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.0827950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked BetBoom Team73c1,303$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.5719355.4%107 W · 86 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5501…fe9abacked Heroic52c1,249$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.1218736.9%69 W · 118 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Heroic52c1,055$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.463122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Heroic48c1,054$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.037147.9%34 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heroic63c941.45$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.657,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed BetBoom Team48c900$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43248437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Heroic58c864.29$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.572,45644.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L-67.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed BetBoom Team52c797.26$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.644,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Heroic74c666.37$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.218353%44 W · 39 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Heroic52c643.15$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.7923861.3%146 W · 92 L+0.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked BetBoom Team41c561.66$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.171,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed BetBoom Team40c481.36$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.819834.7%34 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked BetBoom Team44c476.47$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4834147.5%162 W · 179 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked BetBoom Team43c449.48$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2826438.6%102 W · 162 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0af…3b75backed BetBoom Team59c441.41$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.4318342.1%77 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Heroic56c399.99$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17678348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed Heroic68c387.59$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.974358.1%25 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…79d3backed BetBoom Team8c357.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.341533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fde…9ab1backed BetBoom Team61c357.31$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.961566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed BetBoom Team44c349.94$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9769635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c99…dfe9backed BetBoom Team50c349.2$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.61637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5887…994ebacked BetBoom Team52c325.11$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.3410950.5%55 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf301…4ce1backed Heroic55c323.77$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.475543.6%24 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed BetBoom Team40c313.92$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.3427831.7%88 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1752…682bbacked BetBoom Team31c313.46$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.846555.4%36 W · 29 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+26.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed BetBoom Team41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12323851.7%123 W · 115 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BetBoom Team44c297.42$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.825,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8da9…0a78backed BetBoom Team42c294.65$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.71560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c7…4332backed BetBoom Team48c288.81$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9617644.3%78 W · 98 L-17.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-20.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked BetBoom Team44c240.7$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9184937.8%321 W · 528 L-20.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heroic49c217.95$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.415,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f7…7714backed BetBoom Team45c214.49$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7119048.9%93 W · 97 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed BetBoom Team39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781,04139.9%415 W · 626 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf1…03b2backed BetBoom Team50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x757d…1496backed Heroic50c199.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9324649.6%122 W · 124 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f0…3206backed BetBoom Team50c194.22$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.119842.9%42 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked Heroic57c191.04$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.159552.6%50 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58ea…538dbacked BetBoom Team51c189.26$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0820549.8%102 W · 103 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed BetBoom Team31c185.54$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5238131%118 W · 263 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed BetBoom Team51c182$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1625042.8%107 W · 143 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93af…32abbacked BetBoom Team52c177.91$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6410247.1%48 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked BetBoom Team50c173.89$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4826037.3%97 W · 163 L-17.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed BetBoom Team31c164.45$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.832,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x75bb…74fcbacked BetBoom Team61c160.59$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.65742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed BetBoom Team40c157.5$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.394,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac2…e183backed BetBoom Team63c155.21$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7813151.9%68 W · 63 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed Heroic63c154.55$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7515145%68 W · 83 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed BetBoom Team40c145.58$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.652,47424.7%611 W · 1,863 L-316.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed BetBoom Team48c143.1$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6922952%119 W · 110 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed BetBoom Team48c137.83$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1657422.5%129 W · 445 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Heroic66c137.35$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.191,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed BetBoom Team37c135$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.411,54833.9%524 W · 1,024 L-73.9wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed BetBoom Team49c121.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5755950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed BetBoom Team22c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.464439.8%256 W · 388 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed BetBoom Team63c119.76$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4520440.7%83 W · 121 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed BetBoom Team53c117.24$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.149654.2%52 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f18…c075backed BetBoom Team51c113.75$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.014045%18 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e0…3182backed Heroic30c111.08$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.55540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+117.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd866…55e0backed Heroic51c107.93$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9449376.1%375 W · 118 L+96.8wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+29.9%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xd795…589abacked Heroic70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304951%25 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Heroic55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456144.3%27 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed BetBoom Team54c98.48$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1829934.4%103 W · 196 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked BetBoom Team50c97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.572451.2%371 W · 353 L+29.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fcd…42f2backed BetBoom Team32c95.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6963541.1%261 W · 374 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed BetBoom Team30c95.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7433452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…eda7backed Heroic70c94.79$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.751643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed BetBoom Team45c92.73$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5838956.3%219 W · 170 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6777…5bbfbacked BetBoom Team43c89.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.639844.9%44 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Heroic52c89.16$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9137441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked Heroic56c86.92$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2517055.3%94 W · 76 L+11.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a3c…5727backed Heroic57c85.46$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+40.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked Heroic59c82.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.931,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Heroic54c82.66$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2628844.1%127 W · 161 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x127a…3344backed BetBoom Team49c79.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.929465.3%192 W · 102 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99be…3622backed Heroic73c78.02$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.069758.8%57 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa940…da29backed BetBoom Team71c76.78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Heroic46c75.54$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.933,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked BetBoom Team44c70.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.712,60552.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L+97.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed Heroic55c70.33$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5452947.1%249 W · 280 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ab…5080backed BetBoom Team63c68.69$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.287361.6%45 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.