NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x928409a91d096a14c75845dc6c7cebd0aa09fa2840288f3a598ae9889ffb0aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,040 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 3,196$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.9 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 2,119$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under | 55c | 1,335$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.55 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 39c | 1,200$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 61c | 1,200$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 15c | 668.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 44c | 540.16$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.29 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 34c | 415.38$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.38 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b61…78e8backed Under | 66c | 402.39$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.88 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 18c | 101.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Under | 57c | 44.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 285 | 36.8%105 W · 180 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…563ebacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 63c | 32.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 54c | 27.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- Cedric Coward: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Cedric Coward: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Celtics vs. GrizzliesCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Under won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-14.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Celtics (-15.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.