NFL · resolved market
NFL Week 5: The Revenge Tour Parlay
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92e2c5c7cf995d0c726d7a51d719ad9f15ae0678e487d0c09f7ee49737512195
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 3c | 1,588$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 78c | 1,384$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.62 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,300$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +294.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed No | 66c | 332.97$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.74 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked No | 77c | 330.97$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3292…e1e9backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…0062backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…efb8backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0c…4d69backed No | 72c | 141.42$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…558abacked Yes | 32c | 141.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5987…c664backed Yes | 21c | 100.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…6efebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2829…52a4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…d431backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…a9adbacked Yes | 12c | 90.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 67c | 85.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked Yes | 30c | 73.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 28c | 63.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed No | 74c | 55.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked Yes | 25c | 53.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…c629backed Yes | 38c | 52.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ec…a686backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…edfbbacked No | 74c | 41.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed No | 70c | 35.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c9…5304backed Yes | 32c | 33.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x896b…ac07backed No | 73c | 33.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…15dbbacked No | 72c | 31.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 75c | 18.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 15.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.