TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Sarasota: Tyler Zink vs Colton Smith

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tyler Zinkof Tyler Zink, Colton Smith
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,241

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,494 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Colton Smith31c17,428$5,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,316.18,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Tyler Zink80c12,418$9,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,541.1314264.8%92 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Colton Smith30c5,099$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.8637741.4%156 W · 221 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Tyler Zink61c3,535$2,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.472,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Tyler Zink77c2,987$2,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.552,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Tyler Zink60c2,600$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.6511,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Tyler Zink68c2,484$1,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.516,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Colton Smith32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6406726.9%18 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Tyler Zink32c1,995$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.276,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Colton Smith34c1,771$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.163,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x896d…cd2cbacked Colton Smith55c1,304$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.5817357.8%100 W · 73 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Colton Smith32c1,024$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.871,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Colton Smith67c1,008$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.081,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Tyler Zink51c891.53$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.041,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Colton Smith32c869.62$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.866,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Tyler Zink36c795.4$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.61,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Tyler Zink66c676.36$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.151,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Colton Smith40c659.22$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.0184968.4%581 W · 268 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Colton Smith33c639.84$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.038,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Colton Smith42c609.64$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.9427247.4%129 W · 143 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bd…4c63backed Colton Smith42c562.71$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.341553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Colton Smith34c483.42$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.574,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8be2…494abacked Tyler Zink70c475.8$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.911952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Colton Smith40c472.07$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.536944.4%164 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b9…3efebacked Colton Smith62c470.11$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.296254.8%34 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Tyler Zink34c469$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.457,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Colton Smith40c458.16$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.2650644.9%227 W · 279 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Colton Smith65c456.67$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.282,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4738…4687backed Colton Smith66c446.47$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.8537351.2%191 W · 182 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb882…fcabbacked Tyler Zink67c438.73$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.787349.3%36 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Tyler Zink44c424.57$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.4753752.3%281 W · 256 L+2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Colton Smith32c397.21$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1127231.3%85 W · 187 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Tyler Zink34c376.47$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.5210729%31 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Tyler Zink65c360.52$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.642,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x893d…d65bbacked Colton Smith57c344.29$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.792365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+30.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Colton Smith27c342.93$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.821,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Colton Smith35c324.31$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.94,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x939f…1558backed Tyler Zink52c314.36$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.861353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Colton Smith29c303.94$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.616,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Colton Smith65c302.95$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7584963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Colton Smith65c301.66$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7929444.2%130 W · 164 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Colton Smith34c295.67$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8430226.8%81 W · 221 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Tyler Zink69c285.38$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.186470%605 W · 259 L+43.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Tyler Zink62c285.13$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.979,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccbd…f1b7backed Tyler Zink35c278$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.711040.9%45 W · 65 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed Colton Smith65c272.16$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9118957.1%108 W · 81 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Tyler Zink33c271.24$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.3227240.4%110 W · 162 L-25.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-26.8%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Tyler Zink42c254.86$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.8272542.6%309 W · 416 L-20.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Tyler Zink36c250.2$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.133,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Colton Smith47c247.2$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1894549.6%469 W · 476 L-23.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Colton Smith63c242.73$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.921,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked Tyler Zink36c235.78$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.913450%67 W · 67 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Colton Smith50c229.23$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6694447.7%450 W · 494 L+34.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Colton Smith65c199.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.991,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59db…2e36backed Colton Smith48c189.17$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9814772.8%107 W · 40 L+19.7wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Colton Smith65c183.07$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11955660.3%335 W · 221 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68af…ca81backed Tyler Zink33c172.18$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3621720.3%44 W · 173 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbace…6a61backed Colton Smith23c169.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.591241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Tyler Zink36c150$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9529230.5%89 W · 203 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbef…0c11backed Colton Smith67c146.49$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0168157.6%392 W · 289 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x400d…e759backed Tyler Zink37c145.29$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5360856.6%344 W · 264 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Tyler Zink51c140.06$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7843558.6%255 W · 180 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1248…eabbbacked Colton Smith65c130.17$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.261030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9592…67bebacked Colton Smith51c129.79$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.084358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Colton Smith48c123.23$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.62,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Colton Smith34c118.15$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.752,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Colton Smith63c116.5$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.44639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51bb…a38bbacked Tyler Zink78c114.82$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2622567.1%151 W · 74 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Colton Smith27c108.64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.373,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x584d…d358backed Colton Smith58c105.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9834159.5%203 W · 138 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7690…dfcebacked Tyler Zink37c104.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5334637.9%131 W · 215 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Colton Smith38c102.26$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.55166.7%34 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Colton Smith69c99.92$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9460943.3%264 W · 345 L-24.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Tyler Zink35c99.37$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.591,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99be…3622backed Colton Smith35c97.48$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.35448.1%26 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Tyler Zink37c96.49$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8985250%426 W · 426 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Tyler Zink35c91.4$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.771,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e11…e1f5backed Tyler Zink73c87.6$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6521451.4%110 W · 104 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dcf…87b8backed Colton Smith64c85.07$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.456842.6%29 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Colton Smith34c81.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6665346.4%303 W · 350 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f1…705cbacked Colton Smith65c76.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6429958.5%175 W · 124 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Tyler Zink64c75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.214,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86d0…904ebacked Colton Smith50c74.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6223634.7%82 W · 154 L-37.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-45.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Tyler Zink35c71.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1410646.2%49 W · 57 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f60…3a69backed Tyler Zink69c70.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.92263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Colton Smith70c67.27$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.291,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc274…86debacked Colton Smith34c66.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7849342.8%211 W · 282 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…9257backed Tyler Zink79c62.49$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.124271.4%30 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Tyler Zink68c62.24$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.232,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56cd…2ddcbacked Tyler Zink57c61.34$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.223249.1%114 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Tyler Zink45c59.93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.93,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ed…72efbacked Colton Smith64c56.21$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9738754.3%210 W · 177 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Tyler Zink36c53.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1930853.6%165 W · 143 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Colton Smith24c52.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.672,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96bc…d2b5backed Colton Smith63c50.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8741668%283 W · 133 L+23.6wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed Tyler Zink34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3312447.6%59 W · 65 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x823d…2db3backed Tyler Zink36c46.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301580%12 W · 3 L+4.7wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+81.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x46ea…d849backed Colton Smith64c45.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3516370.6%115 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed Colton Smith64c45.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3588560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Tyler Zink53c45.83$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4152854.9%290 W · 238 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.