South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-08-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x933b8dc79dcd1698e18faf517697f25fc4df89c7226b1828dbf1680d47550d6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 6c | 22,270$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.55 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d1…7ec7backed Yes | 8c | 13,212$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 7c | 11,834$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.26 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed No | 58c | 8,578$4,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,632.44 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +112%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebae…fb79backed Yes | 6c | 7,368$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 80c | 3,518$2,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.66 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…5390backed Yes | 33c | 3,387$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.54 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…0ad9backed Yes | 45c | 2,871$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.18 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…3c46backed Yes | 12c | 2,432$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.95 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 64c | 2,176$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.71 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 42c | 2,100$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.34 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23c…5ae7backed Yes | 15c | 2,013$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.66 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed Yes | 9c | 1,244$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 124 | 34.7%43 W · 81 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…a351backed No | 58c | 1,112$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.28 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…83a8backed Yes | 14c | 1,097$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.49 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec6…b86cbacked Yes | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 16c | 863.25$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 853.23$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.3 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…349cbacked Yes | 21c | 833.49$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.76 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 74c | 827.08$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.89 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed Yes | 36c | 819.49$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.9 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…a830backed Yes | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…da8ebacked Yes | 37c | 657.89$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.37 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 3c | 584.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4e…e5b7backed Yes | 21c | 560.87$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7178…7400backed Yes | 8c | 536.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…7e76backed Yes | 19c | 531.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 79c | 524.23$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.1 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 8c | 523.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 71c | 521.98$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.42 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 52c | 480.98$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 120 | 65%78 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 390.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Yes | 3c | 384.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…8b4bbacked Yes | 4c | 353.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Yes | 15c | 312.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 108 | 28.7%31 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39f9…fcc3backed No | 67c | 249.92$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.48 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 12c | 220$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 6c | 199.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…7813backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37c…ef29backed Yes | 6c | 177.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9b…4238backed Yes | 21c | 176$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 20c | 166$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 33c | 161$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 24c | 147.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Yes | 12c | 145.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked No | 71c | 139.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 32c | 134.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 63c | 129.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…2ff5backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 44c | 122.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed No | 80c | 104.29$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeac6…6cf8backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df3…1753backed No | 78c | 98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 26c | 91.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…e072backed Yes | 21c | 82.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 63c | 74.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 22c | 69.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87b3…1b0fbacked Yes | 23c | 50.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db6…fa76backed Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 72c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-08-12?this page
- Will SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.