Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94843750a287cb14df79e3183d41739d1a80117f54f3a97176f1087a2821040b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 321.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 28c | 303.22$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.86 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 295.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 77c | 281.85$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 19c | 225.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.46 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 185.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 38c | 175.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 66c | 175.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.81 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 41c | 164.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.98 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 160.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.43 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 154.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 145.66$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 34c | 140.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 20c | 137.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.28 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 76c | 131.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 53c | 131.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 126.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 105.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 105.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 61c | 97.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 94.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 89.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 15c | 87.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 84.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 72c | 84.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 83.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 31c | 81.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 76.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 64c | 73.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 73.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 72.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 34c | 65.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 79c | 65.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 79c | 64.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 59.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 34c | 58.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 39c | 58.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 33c | 57.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 55.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 64c | 55.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 54c | 54.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 27c | 54.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 51.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 37c | 51.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked Yes | 33c | 50.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 46.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 24c | 46.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 50c | 45.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 45.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 30c | 44.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 62c | 44.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 42.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 42.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 40.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 70c | 35.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 70c | 35.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 34.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 34.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 61c | 33.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 74c | 32.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 74c | 28.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 63c | 23.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 21.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…918bbacked Yes | 69c | 21.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 15.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 15.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.