Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31aab8e6a94fdac0ffbe805b326f7d91e8ad47a9bc880045c8ffcbaa3aefec08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e61…e2bebacked Yes | 48c | 1,493$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 2c | 880.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 645.79$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 48c | 473.13$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 323.44$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 288.95$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 48c | 241.1$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 34c | 239.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 53c | 226.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 216.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 198.08$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 190.27$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 62c | 170.71$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 151.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 46c | 127.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 127.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 79c | 126.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 123.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 14c | 122.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 117.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 47c | 115$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 107.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 107.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 32c | 101$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 97.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 54c | 90.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 46c | 90.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 48c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 59c | 84.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 51c | 78.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 45c | 76.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 44c | 66.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 65.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 54c | 63.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 39c | 63.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 60.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 53c | 57.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 55.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 55c | 52.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 54c | 52.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 52c | 50.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 80c | 50.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 46c | 49.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 46c | 46.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 44.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 54c | 44.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 43.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 46c | 41.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed No | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 40.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…22c8backed Yes | 47c | 40.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 35c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 45c | 38.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 54c | 37.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 50c | 34.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 51c | 34.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes | 45c | 33.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 78c | 32.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 46c | 31.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 51c | 30.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 37c | 29.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 46c | 26.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 47c | 23.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 46c | 22.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 52c | 22.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 62c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 17.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.