Movies · resolved market
Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 47m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x948c24cd7ee68e3dfdc340083b41bf0eae364b770276534beb0e844c91764e39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 9c | 2,900$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.01 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,913$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,448$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 2c | 961.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 4c | 753.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 2c | 605.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 72c | 456$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.25 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 22c | 287.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 27c | 260$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 6c | 252.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…d338backed Yes | 28c | 240$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 235$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 27c | 218$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 9c | 192.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 27c | 146.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 22c | 127.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 54c | 100.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f7…aa1bbacked Yes | 26c | 96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 28c | 81.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 72c | 40.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…c246backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 47m?this page
- Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 47m and 52m?Yes won
- Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 62m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.