TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Allianceof Inner Circle Esports, Alliance
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,246
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,099

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,246 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd604…ee57backed Inner Circle Esports48c6,910$3,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,321.394731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Alliance63c4,466$2,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.2436742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Inner Circle Esports36c1,811$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.2535940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Inner Circle Esports26c1,700$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.074,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Alliance44c1,551$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.178636%31 W · 55 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed Alliance52c1,250$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60043455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Alliance53c1,202$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.0436253.3%193 W · 169 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Alliance67c985.7$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.8778963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc426…20b4backed Inner Circle Esports33c899.99$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2979656.3%54 W · 42 L+10.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Alliance71c797.5$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.794,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Inner Circle Esports48c795.12$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.9255950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked Alliance63c701.84$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.6729052.4%152 W · 138 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x582a…ae39backed Inner Circle Esports65c670.21$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.047250%36 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Alliance80c634.46$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.758353%44 W · 39 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Inner Circle Esports27c594.3$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.4646340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Alliance50c586.38$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.851,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked Inner Circle Esports26c574.3$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0529839.3%117 W · 181 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Alliance51c563.1$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.2994645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Alliance53c531.37$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.7541260.9%251 W · 161 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Inner Circle Esports34c477.35$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.6365546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Inner Circle Esports39c447.02$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.345,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed Inner Circle Esports58c402.23$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.5431654.7%173 W · 143 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x523e…3128backed Inner Circle Esports22c397.3$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8315544.5%69 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Alliance48c393.08$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.283,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Alliance50c381.6$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.085,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9147…baccbacked Alliance64c375.64$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.027241.7%30 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcd4…39b8backed Alliance47c368.87$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.56637.9%25 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed Alliance61c342.5$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.176546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85ae…5399backed Inner Circle Esports37c320.96$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.752536%9 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Alliance50c310.33$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.383543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alliance77c297.22$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.365,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Alliance50c297$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.0950340.2%202 W · 301 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7044…2eb6backed Inner Circle Esports32c292.38$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4415857.6%91 W · 67 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed Inner Circle Esports56c281.1$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.6952947.1%249 W · 280 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Inner Circle Esports66c277.55$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.8148948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6bb…6b39backed Inner Circle Esports24c275$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658838.6%34 W · 54 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Inner Circle Esports20c268.27$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.522,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Inner Circle Esports18c261.42$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.121,03839.9%414 W · 624 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Inner Circle Esports38c257.07$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.216,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed Alliance53c249.37$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.248562.7%304 W · 181 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Inner Circle Esports38c240.7$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4711651.7%60 W · 56 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Inner Circle Esports67c229.23$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.3438942.4%165 W · 224 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Inner Circle Esports46c228.36$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1240635.7%145 W · 261 L-33.0wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd4d8…c3f8backed Inner Circle Esports21c224.81$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2111242%47 W · 65 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9b…3de2backed Inner Circle Esports34c218.97$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.458842%37 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked Inner Circle Esports9c210.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.911,07832%345 W · 733 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed Alliance57c200.93$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5523072.6%167 W · 63 L+27.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5f3a…c3c8backed Inner Circle Esports50c200.02$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Alliance57c200$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8558651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Alliance37c199.59$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.487744.2%34 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Alliance52c199.14$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5958343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Alliance38c197.35$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.222,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Inner Circle Esports67c193.65$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7849745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Inner Circle Esports40c187.62$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0784037.9%318 W · 522 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd866…55e0backed Alliance56c182.94$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1649376.1%375 W · 118 L+96.8wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+29.9%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Inner Circle Esports45c179.34$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.732,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Alliance30c161.71$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.9938131%118 W · 263 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Alliance53c153.67$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.2221723%50 W · 167 L-35.4wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-61.2%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Inner Circle Esports38c147.97$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5113246.2%61 W · 71 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b8…d47dbacked Alliance68c145.36$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8460857.2%348 W · 260 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Inner Circle Esports56c136.91$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2448635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Alliance32c135.28$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7634147.5%162 W · 179 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Inner Circle Esports28c128.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5231328.4%89 W · 224 L-21.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Alliance68c127.35$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5551755.9%289 W · 228 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fa8…d75fbacked Alliance36c121.71$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.448144.4%36 W · 45 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+26.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cd2…1f27backed Inner Circle Esports28c120.95$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4854439.7%216 W · 328 L-1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e2b…a9e4backed Inner Circle Esports53c110.95$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.83237.5%12 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fcd…42f2backed Inner Circle Esports36c109.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7363541.1%261 W · 374 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a0c…3ccebacked Inner Circle Esports26c106.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6341640.6%169 W · 247 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb126…9848backed Inner Circle Esports36c104.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.510251%52 W · 50 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x783f…8f90backed Inner Circle Esports11c103.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.542951.7%15 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+33.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fa7…089dbacked Alliance47c102.16$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.776050%30 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Inner Circle Esports15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1533241.6%138 W · 194 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x663b…f860backed Inner Circle Esports36c97.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.921136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Alliance50c97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.51,04645%471 W · 575 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Inner Circle Esports59c96.62$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4224747%116 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5206…0f4cbacked Inner Circle Esports38c96.28$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5926535.5%94 W · 171 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7489…7c83backed Inner Circle Esports35c96.1$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.642842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354f…95f8backed Alliance53c91.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0912954.3%70 W · 59 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Inner Circle Esports33c86.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.791,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x739d…999bbacked Alliance57c85.46$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.756759.7%40 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ee…0267backed Alliance63c84.42$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0818054.4%98 W · 82 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x846d…67b3backed Inner Circle Esports55c82.28$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2524842.7%106 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62f9…ae42backed Alliance52c80.86$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8114751%75 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae60…1f06backed Inner Circle Esports37c80.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.913141.9%13 W · 18 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x989e…6529backed Inner Circle Esports25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013040%52 W · 78 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Inner Circle Esports41c79.42$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5678348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…0539backed Inner Circle Esports37c76.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.249137.4%34 W · 57 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb98d…c479backed Inner Circle Esports60c75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454827.1%13 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed Alliance70c73.65$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.127556.4%155 W · 120 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Inner Circle Esports60c71.37$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.653,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0e…13aabacked Alliance53c69.62$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7215638.5%60 W · 96 L-19.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6342…0546backed Inner Circle Esports60c65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Inner Circle Esports45c64.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0964439.8%256 W · 388 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Alliance49c64.03$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.971,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7820…0b73backed Inner Circle Esports38c63.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0717153.2%91 W · 80 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff5…7bd9backed Alliance40c62.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.024344.2%19 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Alliance57c62.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0637448.4%181 W · 193 L-16.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Alliance40c61.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8511240.2%45 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Inner Circle Esports27c60.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2649947.5%237 W · 262 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.