NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94e51d5493dec36b60cf3ea52f101a10762b921b2075abb17f451f4e0ceda81b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Suns | 46c | 11,199$5,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,047.45 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Lakers | 54c | 7,314$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,949.57 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Lakers | 54c | 3,864$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.55 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 25c | 3,342$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lakers | 52c | 2,902$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.11 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Suns | 48c | 2,853$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.63 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Suns | 47c | 2,685$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.43 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Lakers | 50c | 2,593$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.57 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Suns | 47c | 2,585$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.05 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…3cccbacked Suns | 55c | 1,900$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…ff56backed Lakers | 45c | 1,900$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 52c | 1,384$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.64 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Suns | 53c | 1,115$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.19 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lakers | 54c | 1,064$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.44 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Suns | 49c | 1,012$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.73 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Suns | 52c | 761.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.97 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Suns | 53c | 725.36$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.92 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 46c | 658.42$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.09 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Suns | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Lakers | 47c | 548$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.56 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Suns | 46c | 440$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.8 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Suns | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Suns | 56c | 433.4$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.7 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Suns | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Lakers | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Suns | 46c | 357.13$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.85 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Suns | 46c | 348$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.92 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Lakers | 54c | 333.33$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Suns | 44c | 329.71$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.64 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Lakers | 46c | 283.83$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.67 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Lakers | 55c | 220$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Lakers | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Suns | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Suns | 57c | 170.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Suns | 54c | 147.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Lakers | 47c | 146$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Suns | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Suns | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Suns | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Lakers | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Lakers | 45c | 96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Suns | 51c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Lakers | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Lakers | 52c | 69.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lakers | 52c | 66.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Suns | 49c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Suns | 48c | 51.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Lakers | 50c | 50.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Suns | 55c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Suns | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Suns | 48c | 41.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…d962backed Suns | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Lakers | 47c | 39.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Lakers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Lakers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Suns | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Suns | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Suns | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 230 | 51.3%118 W · 112 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Suns | 56c | 27.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Suns | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Suns | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-3.5)Suns won
- Lakers vs. SunsSuns won
- Lakers vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Lakers vs. Suns: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 223.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 224.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 225.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-6.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.