NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 229.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaa9342b328945e60c02a547c2e5f2db7dcb40ddffb7912153234e15eecde072

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,389
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,389 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under	57c	525.86$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	218	52.8%115 W · 103 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Over	43c	500$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285	1,048	41.1%431 W · 617 L	+23.6wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	56c	452.66$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.68	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over	44c	300$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167	503	46.5%234 W · 269 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Under	56c	269.99$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.2	217	49.3%107 W · 110 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ac…aa06backed Under	67c	250$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.79	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	70c	247$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.85	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	33c	234.12$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.86	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Over	44c	100$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	628	48.7%306 W · 322 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	40c	83.45$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.29	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25e7…51d6backed Over	44c	45.39$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.42	71	45.1%32 W · 39 L	-5.8wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under	70c	36.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.15	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Under	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 229.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event