NBA · resolved market

Spread: Suns (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b1bf655a6da03708bedf9513c24e899f97fb9a8b6021c2ef1eba80821644caf

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Sunsof Suns, Lakers
Resolved: Dec 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,097

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,011 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Suns	56c	3,280$1,836 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,444.26	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Lakers	56c	3,202$1,793 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,793.01	484	48.8%236 W · 248 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Suns	44c	3,155$1,388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,766.69	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers	44c	2,894$1,273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,273.26	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lakers	44c	800.4$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.05	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Suns	55c	239.99$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.79	734	45.5%334 W · 400 L	+8.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Suns	53c	238$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.86	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba36…52d0backed Lakers	39c	209.42$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.7	68	55.9%38 W · 30 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc49c…6dcabacked Lakers	40c	205$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.17	79	51.9%41 W · 38 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeff8…1bcfbacked Lakers	39c	143$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.77	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Lakers	45c	118.09$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.21	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Suns	56c	105.06$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.23	231	53.2%123 W · 108 L	+6.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Suns	51c	105$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.4	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Lakers	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	427	44.5%190 W · 237 L	-9.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Suns	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked Suns	57c	100$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	113	46%52 W · 61 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Lakers	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	141	27.7%39 W · 102 L	-16.4wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Suns	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ace…07c7backed Lakers	47c	85.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-3.1wins	-0.19per pick	51cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Lakers	39c	73$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.47	95	60%57 W · 38 L	+10.7wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked Lakers	39c	72$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.08	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…2f86backed Suns	60c	63$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.04	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Lakers	43c	59.35$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.52	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf9…1abfbacked Lakers	39c	54$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.06	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed Suns	57c	52.63$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.63	479	48.6%233 W · 246 L	+14.4wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70af…bcf2backed Suns	59c	50.85$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.85	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-3.1wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9db…ab38backed Suns	61c	47$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.33	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Lakers	39c	46.39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.09	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xede6…89c4backed Suns	61c	40$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	50	56%28 W · 22 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3517…9f8dbacked Suns	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcba…d962backed Suns	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	85	43.5%37 W · 48 L	-7.9wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8204…61d9backed Suns	61c	35$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.65	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Suns	61c	32.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.74	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf71c…488bbacked Suns	60c	31$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.4	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.5wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60ee…f2d4backed Suns	61c	31$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.09	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Suns	44c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Lakers	45c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6931…89cabacked Lakers	47c	26.6$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	102	48%49 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaac…1045backed Suns	61c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.75	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f6…9cdabacked Suns	61c	23$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.97	35	65.7%23 W · 12 L	+4.5wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x22e5…81acbacked Suns	61c	22$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.58	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-4.8wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-32%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9acf…bd74backed Suns	61c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.19	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cdb…ae41backed Suns	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5a9…f72ebacked Suns	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fba…dc55backed Suns	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…d929backed Suns	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa029…c912backed Suns	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2614…1000backed Suns	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Suns	58c	18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.56	107	51.4%55 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Suns (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event