NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 225.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd04f5f64311c11adde0b1b1c168a11451814a1b4734d66433cdf2121dcf12283

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,467
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $38,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,467 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e2f…ec47backed Under	51c	13,653$6,946 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,946.2	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf89c…5e0bbacked Over	49c	10,208$5,002 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,206.09	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+95.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	45c	6,853$3,108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,108.06	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Under	47c	3,500$1,655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,655	94	51.1%48 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over	55c	3,300$1,824 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,476.12	112	42%47 W · 65 L	-10.1wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	54c	3,000$1,620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,380	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	54c	3,000$1,620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,380	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Over	53c	2,530$1,341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,189.1	220	55%121 W · 99 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1702…4666backed Over	49c	2,205$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,124.51	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	50cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Over	56c	1,500$840 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$659.99	74	55.4%41 W · 33 L	-5.1wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	46c	877$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.54	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under	46c	746$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.16	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	46c	700$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	51c	500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a9…676ebacked Under	48c	500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	22	50%11 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed Over	52c	400$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over	53c	398.11$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.11	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over	49c	300$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	47c	291.52$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.27	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Over	50c	196.07$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.04	189	54.5%103 W · 86 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under	46c	147.42$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.44	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa891…6c9dbacked Over	52c	134$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.32	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	50c	104.15$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.25	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Over	52c	102.04$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	434	53.2%231 W · 203 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd1…da41backed Over	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc079…8881backed Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	77	53.2%41 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0a6…2a95backed Over	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Over	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	373	52%194 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	227	56.8%129 W · 98 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over	52c	77$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.96	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	48c	77$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.96	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bce…c373backed Under	48c	69$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62ba…abc3backed Under	48c	65$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Under	46c	43.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	47c	42.13$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932e…6f5abacked Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f84…f7ffbacked Over	53c	33$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.51	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	47c	32.74$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.52	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23ff…94f5backed Over	56c	32.23$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.18	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5615…acc6backed Over	53c	28.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.42	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Under	48c	27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	493	58.6%289 W · 204 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Over	52c	20.13$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.66	1,048	41.1%431 W · 617 L	+23.6wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 225.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event