Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9518b00d6f5acb288d3ed9cc9700bfecc673fd3698a7f1f92566b68c01a424ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 878.41$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.1 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 49c | 455.29$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.56 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 376.61$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 35c | 368.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.75 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 26c | 360.88$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.16 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 246$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 45c | 212.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.88 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 53c | 207.23$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 65c | 201.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.29 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 56c | 177.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 58c | 167$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 28c | 135.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 125.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 123.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 74c | 109.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 52c | 108$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 64c | 102.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 77c | 99.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 48c | 84.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 52c | 80.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…84cdbacked No | 49c | 76.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 71.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 72c | 69.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…0020backed Yes | 39c | 63.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 63.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 59.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 49.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 44.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 41c | 39.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 52c | 37.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 37c | 37.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 43c | 36.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 35.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…50b7backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 29.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 28.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 22.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 74c | 20.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 49c | 20.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…df40backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.