TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
GIANTXof GIANTX, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$391,302
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$453,982

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,302 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked GIANTX54c37,902$20,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,435.1455955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Natus Vincere46c37,469$17,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,235.7411645.7%53 W · 63 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Natus Vincere20c29,999$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.751,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3afc…4ae6backed Natus Vincere0c27,130$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Natus Vincere2c13,332$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.973775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Natus Vincere32c8,881$2,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,872.5221754.8%119 W · 98 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked GIANTX55c8,657$4,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,926.1567250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Natus Vincere43c7,445$3,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,216.2348149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Natus Vincere4c6,952$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.3925952.9%137 W · 122 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed GIANTX55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9982352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed Natus Vincere25c6,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9932440.4%131 W · 193 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed Natus Vincere1c5,046$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4616254.9%89 W · 73 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere8c4,533$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.252,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed GIANTX53c4,159$2,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.813,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Natus Vincere41c4,081$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.2466437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Natus Vincere27c3,744$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.6569539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x663d…2dd4backed Natus Vincere2c3,427$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5117155%94 W · 77 L+16.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Natus Vincere3c3,029$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2791854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed GIANTX55c2,999$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.411,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Natus Vincere36c2,910$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.071,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed GIANTX56c2,502$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.8954756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Natus Vincere45c2,321$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.362,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5511…5734backed Natus Vincere36c2,300$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83524029.2%70 W · 170 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed GIANTX55c2,300$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03571249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere36c2,264$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.851,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Natus Vincere49c2,089$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.7296250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Natus Vincere16c2,087$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.6350242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed GIANTX55c2,048$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.821,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed GIANTX55c2,021$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.451,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Natus Vincere46c1,935$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.0389943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked GIANTX72c1,883$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.081,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Natus Vincere45c1,854$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.550749.7%252 W · 255 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Natus Vincere45c1,792$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.4828553%151 W · 134 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Natus Vincere44c1,600$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.991,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Natus Vincere39c1,562$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.0839246.4%182 W · 210 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed GIANTX55c1,545$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.241,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked GIANTX56c1,538$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.7470456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Natus Vincere46c1,500$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69086251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Natus Vincere44c1,500$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.4932844.2%145 W · 183 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked GIANTX50c1,493$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.3733838.2%129 W · 209 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96f1…b6d8backed GIANTX75c1,470$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.5538659.8%231 W · 155 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed GIANTX55c1,458$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.091,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3234…8b1abacked GIANTX56c1,419$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.947358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8397…231fbacked Natus Vincere8c1,296$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.714932.7%16 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Natus Vincere46c1,250$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57552750.5%266 W · 261 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a22…fca9backed Natus Vincere4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021443.9%94 W · 120 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd621…b9efbacked Natus Vincere2c1,138$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9725241.3%104 W · 148 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked GIANTX80c1,087$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.361,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Natus Vincere34c1,040$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.7615632.7%51 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed GIANTX54c1,039$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.471,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Natus Vincere6c1,022$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.338360.2%50 W · 33 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+55.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4431…f851backed Natus Vincere47c1,000$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46512035.8%43 W · 77 L-9.1wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked GIANTX54c972.4$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.379653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Natus Vincere50c960$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48013933.8%47 W · 92 L-14.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-32.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Natus Vincere7c911.82$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.611,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2248…bc0ebacked Natus Vincere45c903.93$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.1219745.2%89 W · 108 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed GIANTX52c862.51$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.92,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Natus Vincere42c814.66$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.321,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked GIANTX72c736.71$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.8642941.5%178 W · 251 L-24.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d4c…935ebacked Natus Vincere14c729.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.513433.6%45 W · 89 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-29.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Natus Vincere46c710.89$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.511,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Natus Vincere48c698.8$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.431,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed GIANTX56c695.43$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.9979151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac8…45c4backed GIANTX53c689.72$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.1751044.9%229 W · 281 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Natus Vincere28c683.93$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.361,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Natus Vincere2c670.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.117241.9%72 W · 100 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13b4…f4d9backed GIANTX57c669.27$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.3926062.7%163 W · 97 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked GIANTX56c660$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.428852.1%150 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Natus Vincere6c629.07$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7411859.3%70 W · 48 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+39.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed Natus Vincere3c627.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8429846.6%139 W · 159 L-19.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Natus Vincere26c576.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15043642.4%185 W · 251 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked GIANTX57c568.47$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.441,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3cd…9f3ebacked GIANTX70c562.42$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.6615257.9%88 W · 64 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed GIANTX55c555.56$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25063161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed GIANTX77c548.13$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.7832160.7%195 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Natus Vincere26c543.5$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.547933.6%161 W · 318 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed GIANTX78c520$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11576953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed Natus Vincere31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed GIANTX56c486.8$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.1964553.3%344 W · 301 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32c…d29cbacked GIANTX63c467.42$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.014658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36a0…436dbacked Natus Vincere7c450$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.547738.6%184 W · 293 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Natus Vincere44c440$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.250647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed GIANTX56c431.91$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.041,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c18…9b0ebacked Natus Vincere45c429.78$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.47145.1%32 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Natus Vincere45c427.65$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.461,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Natus Vincere43c410.38$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.873,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Natus Vincere21c399.98$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed Natus Vincere23c395.26$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9123624.6%58 W · 178 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3072…4ca9backed GIANTX80c370.5$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.113647.1%64 W · 72 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Natus Vincere24c370.33$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7558420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0833…bc88backed GIANTX80c367.54$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.515757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41a6…fbadbacked Natus Vincere45c346.12$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.7510760.7%65 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc553…5928backed Natus Vincere10c342.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5141743.9%183 W · 234 L+1.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked GIANTX64c335.57$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.883560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked GIANTX56c326.85$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8135164.1%225 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa416…63f4backed Natus Vincere13c322.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0845042.2%190 W · 260 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc8…67f7backed GIANTX54c313.92$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.424759.1%146 W · 101 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e4…c4b2backed GIANTX67c304.78$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5826861.6%165 W · 103 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed GIANTX67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9956650%283 W · 283 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Natus Vincere47c299.98$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.991,39943.7%612 W · 787 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.