NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Senators: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x955a54c51cfb33ea83c1ad7a5ff6d73ab5d2d0e3a3d47bdc089aa78707b7e2b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 50c | 96,584$48,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,582.73 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 50c | 34,085$17,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,042.47 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 16,000$7,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,230 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 12,531$6,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,466.09 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 51c | 12,100$6,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,893.6 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 48c | 6,844$3,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,536.28 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 50c | 4,139$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.4 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 2,430$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.94 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 50c | 1,497$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.98 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 49c | 1,383$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.16 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…245dbacked Over | 50c | 1,001$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 999.98$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 667.33$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.8 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Over | 51c | 502.39$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.47 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Over | 50c | 361.7$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.85 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Under | 49c | 350$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.25 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 338.22$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.92 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 53c | 242.09$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.84 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 238.75$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Over | 47c | 235.84$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 224.78$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Under | 56c | 214.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 53c | 204.81$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7533…285ebacked Under | 53c | 203.4$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…bcdfbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…9871backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 48c | 143.57$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Under | 49c | 138.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Over | 51c | 132.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 49c | 121.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…0dd5backed Under | 50c | 119.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 309 | 51.1%158 W · 151 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 50c | 98.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Under | 51c | 98.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Over | 52c | 93.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…7c59backed Under | 52c | 91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 51c | 88.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 51c | 87.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Under | 51c | 81.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Under | 50c | 75.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 51c | 65.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…061bbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…a31cbacked Over | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed Under | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…04b2backed Over | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed Under | 51c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…0c1abacked Over | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8254backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce7…cc16backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 37.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f5…b664backed Over | 50c | 30.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21a…c2c3backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 51c | 23.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…399dbacked Over | 51c | 21.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…bdddbacked Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Senators: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Penguins vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.