South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Paranaense vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x956188c18065b6341f668839142320c3cefdc85bec628f21038c3e49c86f938f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 36c | 5,290$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.3 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 76c | 3,049$2,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.99 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a44…8985backed Yes | 30c | 1,861$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 15c | 1,431$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.38 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 71c | 1,344$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.17 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 1,249$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.35 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 66c | 975.18$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.44 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbc…faebbacked Yes | 25c | 811.08$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 70c | 611.15$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.07 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Yes | 29c | 519.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.72 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 70c | 450$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 70c | 450$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 49c | 432$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 65c | 409.86$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.6 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 404.28$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.46 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b57…95e1backed Yes | 80c | 375.12$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…d34abacked Yes | 34c | 291.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 37c | 285.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 39c | 212.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 71c | 203.46$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.46 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 61c | 199.3$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…cc1bbacked Yes | 31c | 161.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 72c | 152.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.63 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 28c | 151.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 30c | 137.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 65c | 135$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fca…819abacked Yes | 30c | 133.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Yes | 75c | 132.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 73c | 122.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 65c | 118.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 71c | 115.31$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c1…22e4backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 57c | 106.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 106$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb6…f7b3backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 40c | 98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 21c | 95.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 43c | 95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 30c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 27c | 75.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff1a…4475backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 66c | 67.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…499abacked Yes | 74c | 61.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 72c | 60.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…679dbacked Yes | 30c | 57.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 25c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 72c | 45.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Yes | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Yes | 79c | 37.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 74cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 70c | 35.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 72c | 27.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Yes | 79c | 26.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1de…adc8backed Yes | 76c | 25.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 58c | 21.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a42…ad20backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 71c | 18.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 290 | 53.8%156 W · 134 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed No | 73c | 18.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc762…705fbacked No | 73c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Yes | 74c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 170 | 67.6%115 W · 55 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Paranaense vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-17?No won
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.