TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: No Hoodwink vs Level UP - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
No Hoodwinkof No Hoodwink, Level UP
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,248

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,259 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf3ce…a57abacked No Hoodwink45c7,340$3,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,015.441,19759.2%709 W · 488 L+63.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Level UP1c6,205$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9710453.8%56 W · 48 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Level UP53c6,006$3,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,183.121,17943.1%508 W · 671 L+41.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Level UP55c6,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30029952.2%156 W · 143 L+19.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed No Hoodwink60c4,022$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.1147457.4%272 W · 202 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Level UP43c3,666$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,558.9889341.5%371 W · 522 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08a5…db43backed No Hoodwink35c2,694$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.617452.7%39 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Level UP40c2,603$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.6667932.5%221 W · 458 L-27.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed Level UP52c2,500$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.9931444.9%141 W · 173 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked No Hoodwink52c2,241$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.2279159.4%470 W · 321 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Level UP49c1,700$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.9856949%279 W · 290 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked No Hoodwink39c1,500$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.9869235.3%244 W · 448 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed No Hoodwink51c1,471$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.7247953.9%258 W · 221 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6155…808ebacked No Hoodwink40c1,400$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.596440.6%26 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed No Hoodwink36c1,397$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.5813943.9%61 W · 78 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Level UP43c1,396$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.4887838.3%336 W · 542 L-42.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e5…519dbacked No Hoodwink73c1,343$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.8812664.3%81 W · 45 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Level UP54c1,288$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.8294442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5266…22acbacked No Hoodwink57c1,235$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5323256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d59…8b19backed No Hoodwink60c1,212$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.544341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed No Hoodwink58c1,067$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.1290753.7%487 W · 420 L+50.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Level UP72c933.65$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67579559.4%472 W · 323 L+3.7wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Level UP76c888.66$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.1825246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked No Hoodwink74c850.39$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.894247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed No Hoodwink57c805.3$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.316750.3%84 W · 83 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed No Hoodwink47c609.69$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.8858156.6%329 W · 252 L+27.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Level UP65c606.74$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.3867555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Level UP72c562.46$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.961,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…1044backed Level UP31c530.96$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.174052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No Hoodwink47c505.21$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.111,89447.7%903 W · 991 L+6.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Level UP32c459.42$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.0150850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Level UP9c431.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7892846.2%429 W · 499 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Level UP54c427.89$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.1188938%338 W · 551 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked No Hoodwink33c416.88$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.8412252.5%64 W · 58 L+17.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb7e0…0d8abacked No Hoodwink48c399.3$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.2726859%158 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed No Hoodwink65c392.83$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5710075%75 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Level UP18c375.93$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.378541.7%327 W · 458 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Level UP67c356.72$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.665863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Level UP43c351.87$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7367546.1%311 W · 364 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed Level UP63c317.49$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.4417952.5%94 W · 85 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e8…fafcbacked Level UP42c307.04$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.718444%37 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Level UP65c303.08$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19747450.8%241 W · 233 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Level UP55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16526247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3a71backed No Hoodwink75c250$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.56669.7%46 W · 20 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked No Hoodwink37c249.66$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1840644.6%181 W · 225 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c91…3691backed No Hoodwink73c246.58$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.581225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-36.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Level UP48c239.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.1410030%30 W · 70 L-15.1wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-53.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed No Hoodwink41c219.51$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.5136452.5%191 W · 173 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb66e…ffc2backed Level UP45c202.26$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.14257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2965…89ebbacked No Hoodwink80c185.37$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1210251%52 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc62e…2d85backed Level UP30c177.39$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.134936.7%18 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Level UP51c175$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4547348.2%228 W · 245 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Level UP25c173.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8478516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2d79…9e95backed No Hoodwink33c173.3$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.113625%9 W · 27 L-6.9wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-35.6%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Level UP46c172.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.721,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Level UP60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015648.7%76 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabd9…dc3abacked No Hoodwink37c155.12$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.3417733.3%59 W · 118 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Level UP31c153.88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.71,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf034…3a70backed Level UP65c150.18$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.628854.5%48 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7c…8b29backed No Hoodwink45c146.54$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3314560.7%88 W · 57 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x499f…b72bbacked Level UP53c145.23$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.977835.9%28 W · 50 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ad…c744backed No Hoodwink36c137.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Level UP60c137.75$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6526351%134 W · 129 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7fd…3193backed No Hoodwink73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.992842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Level UP49c131$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.621,11336.2%403 W · 710 L-37.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked No Hoodwink41c129.91$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9753444.4%237 W · 297 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Level UP61c128.2$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1261249.7%304 W · 308 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a9…e7d8backed Level UP65c128$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.24738.3%18 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked Level UP61c120$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.254659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed No Hoodwink59c110.66$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.699459.6%56 W · 38 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeaf1…09b7backed No Hoodwink47c110.64$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.644235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Level UP54c107.59$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.952046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x242c…ddd2backed No Hoodwink47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3821146.9%99 W · 112 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b55…cbc6backed Level UP59c101.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.76238.7%24 W · 38 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No Hoodwink48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3313827.5%38 W · 100 L-15.0wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-50.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No Hoodwink71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2941246.8%193 W · 219 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Level UP46c99.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.691,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4078…a7f7backed Level UP61c90$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554040%16 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4038…35e4backed Level UP63c89$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.214841.7%20 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed No Hoodwink46c88.65$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4827950.2%140 W · 139 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed No Hoodwink39c77.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2817138%65 W · 106 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc15f…223dbacked No Hoodwink75c77$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9711747.9%56 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11ff…4447backed No Hoodwink40c72.33$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3922534.2%77 W · 148 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef2…44c9backed No Hoodwink25c66.6$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.954117.1%7 W · 34 L-9.1wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-54%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x1ace…3038backed No Hoodwink47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8323361.8%144 W · 89 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed No Hoodwink47c60.05$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.127259.2%161 W · 111 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed No Hoodwink69c59.87$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5641739.6%165 W · 252 L-38.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked No Hoodwink50c57.9$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.848647.7%41 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6c…0c16backed Level UP26c57.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9318736.4%68 W · 119 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x142f…19f9backed Level UP69c56.76$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3923342.9%100 W · 133 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a08…ebdcbacked No Hoodwink70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158639.5%34 W · 52 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7eef…44a0backed No Hoodwink39c49.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.57160.6%43 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Level UP29c46.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.580244.9%360 W · 442 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked No Hoodwink39c46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0647058.5%275 W · 195 L+24.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf491…bde1backed No Hoodwink39c43.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+54.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Level UP60c43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.863447.6%302 W · 332 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b00…3d66backed No Hoodwink49c41.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2110935.8%39 W · 70 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ce…e2eabacked No Hoodwink41c36.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.91546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed No Hoodwink65c35.72$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.458742.8%251 W · 336 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Level UP31c33.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3119148.7%93 W · 98 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.