Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x959dbf3edc0e399bfb6297decb115d668469d03018c3a982cd4b34bbd0c499f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 1,539$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.26 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 36c | 825.35$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.58 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 613.17$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 54c | 365.56$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.45 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 38c | 291.93$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.22 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 250.79$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 235.48$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 179.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 37c | 172.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 167.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 36c | 164.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 124.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 55c | 118.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 117.04$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 53c | 113.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 45c | 111.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 106.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 66c | 104.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 45c | 102.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 37c | 101.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 99.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 37c | 99.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 27c | 98.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 55c | 94.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 89.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 44c | 85.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 37c | 84.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 59c | 83.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 79.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 38c | 69.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 65.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 66c | 64.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 67c | 63.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 63.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 43c | 55.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 45c | 51.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 41c | 45.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 41.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 58c | 40.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 35.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…ee31backed Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 30.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 30.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 27.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed No | 65c | 21.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C or below on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.