WNBA · resolved market
Sparks vs. Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x963e5396d9a9a5182567b7c56acc7602d70674453a38ea127e0a92e0d024f570
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sparksof Sparks, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Mercury | 72c | 7,868$5,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,684.61 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Sparks | 28c | 6,733$1,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,847.64 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Sparks | 27c | 4,064$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,957.1 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Mercury | 69c | 2,097$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.77 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Sparks | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Sparks | 35c | 1,475$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.45 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Mercury | 41c | 1,468$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.82 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mercury | 44c | 1,347$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.31 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Sparks | 62c | 1,259$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.42 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Sparks | 60c | 1,175$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Mercury | 36c | 1,093$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…fc7bbacked Mercury | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc36…1fa0backed Mercury | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Sparks | 37c | 999.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Mercury | 74c | 979$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Sparks | 34c | 912.44$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.42 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Sparks | 32c | 821.03$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.38 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mercury | 74c | 727.84$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.39 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sparks | 61c | 721$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.27 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Mercury | 74c | 717.72$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.11 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Mercury | 63c | 693.44$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.87 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Mercury | 60c | 684$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.4 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mercury | 49c | 667.21$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.66 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Sparks | 48c | 593.95$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.85 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked Mercury | 74c | 578.96$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Sparks | 61c | 532.86$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.48 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Mercury | 75c | 528.17$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.31 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Mercury | 75c | 444.44$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.33 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sparks | 27c | 376.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.78 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sparks | 28c | 357.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.94 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mercury | 73c | 308.41$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.11 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Sparks | 26c | 300.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.64 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Mercury | 74c | 255$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.7 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Sparks | 55c | 253.37$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.05 | 320 | 47.8%153 W · 167 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Mercury | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Sparks | 28c | 203$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.69 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -68%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Mercury | 53c | 191.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mercury | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Mercury | 35c | 156.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ff…1eb6backed Mercury | 71c | 140.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mercury | 70c | 135$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 394 | 50.5%199 W · 195 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…5fc9backed Mercury | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Sparks | 32c | 122.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mercury | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Sparks | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Mercury | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Sparks | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Sparks | 30c | 86.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Sparks | 40c | 85.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Sparks | 44c | 83.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Sparks | 26c | 79.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Sparks | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Mercury | 73c | 74.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Sparks | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296f…1f8cbacked Sparks | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Sparks | 46c | 64.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ba…d9efbacked Sparks | 28c | 64.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.39per pick | 51cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mercury | 75c | 64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Sparks | 37c | 56.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Sparks | 33c | 52.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Sparks | 26c | 51.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…d9eabacked Mercury | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Mercury | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Mercury | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Sparks | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Mercury | 78c | 30.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 77cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Mercury | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Sparks | 57c | 29.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1337…2b45backed Mercury | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634c…ca6ebacked Mercury | 76c | 21.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Mercury | 75c | 16.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.