TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Celtics: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Celticsof Warriors, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,902

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,902 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5a73…e1adbacked Warriors25c685.64$175 inLost-$174.83627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Celtics75c555.96$415 inWon+$140.735,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Warriors25c200$50 inLost-$5035447.7%169 W · 185 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480e…90c7backed Celtics79c126.57$100 inWon+$26.5815446.8%72 W · 82 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Warriors21c126.57$27 inLost-$26.582,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Warriors25c101.02$25 inLost-$2536248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Celtics73c91.85$67 inWon+$24.81,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f01…4ca2backed Celtics77c82.26$63 inWon+$18.928856.8%50 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Celtics74c38.31$28 inWon+$9.962,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e7…6ca6backed Celtics74c15.95$12 inWon+$4.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa589…4dedbacked Celtics80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.52576%19 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96d6…6940backed Celtics80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.51471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcea9…12b7backed Celtics80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf00…9c76backed Celtics80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.52759.3%16 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.