NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8f13e21b1604e2be6f726afe4e32c2005c74a6d490c9ec28c79be2e18e88f62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,153 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Warriors | 44c | 1,340$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.49 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…cbaabacked Celtics | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Warriors | 44c | 595.14$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.96 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…3b43backed Celtics | 56c | 455.36$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.36 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…dba8backed Celtics | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Celtics | 56c | 405.68$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 405 | 41%166 W · 239 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 45c | 354.65$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.77 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Celtics | 55c | 322.82$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.27 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Warriors | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Celtics | 56c | 194.64$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 286 | 57.3%164 W · 122 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Warriors | 50c | 100.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 290 | 40.3%117 W · 173 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Celtics | 55c | 91.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 298 | 44%131 W · 167 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Celtics | 55c | 78.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…0075backed Celtics | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed Celtics | 55c | 40.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Warriors | 44c | 27.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 263 | 53.6%141 W · 122 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Celtics | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Draymond Green: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)Celtics won
- Warriors vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Warriors vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Warriors vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.