NBA · resolved market
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x977ad53d16d321527ba5a284ec9dee11ebc83c6f61000245ecff9db054e8f9c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 19c | 611$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.17 | 221 | 40.3%89 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Yes | 27c | 364.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 140 | 59.3%83 W · 57 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 314.79$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 79c | 256.01$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 227.35$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 72c | 165.3$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 25c | 160$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 138$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 21c | 110.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 60c | 92.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…f7b0backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…6d9ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 77c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8221…22bcbacked Yes | 36c | 32.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…a686backed No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mikel Brown Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?this page
- Will AJ Dybantsa be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Darryn Peterson be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Hannes Steinbach be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?Yes won
- Will Yaxel Lendeborg be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.