NBA · resolved market
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc8c473640a8d0a7c448208c0a00992292f34abb4591df246e418eaef00eda72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 37c | 1,925$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 57c | 1,569$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.95 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 69c | 1,280$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.43 | 171 | 62.6%107 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Yes | 31c | 898.05$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.93 | 140 | 59.3%83 W · 57 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 65c | 709.44$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.05 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 39c | 629$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.38 | 221 | 40.3%89 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 50c | 531$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.95 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 353.13$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.28 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 31c | 312$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.7 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked No | 44c | 300$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 42c | 262$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.63 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 69c | 259.56$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.15 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 9c | 216.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +28.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…ebe7backed Yes | 50c | 214.02$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 32c | 173$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 37c | 160$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 155$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 154.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.49 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…80e5backed Yes | 34c | 146$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa184…eaa4backed No | 71c | 142.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…9befbacked Yes | 72c | 136.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…2a2cbacked No | 69c | 136$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 132.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 24c | 130.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…7452backed Yes | 30c | 114.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…71e4backed Yes | 59c | 101.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 32c | 100.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x834f…8b6ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 72c | 85.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x061c…ba08backed Yes | 36c | 70.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…0753backed No | 69c | 69.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 27c | 65.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 72c | 63.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 43c | 51.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…1b17backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b38abacked Yes | 32c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf0…9180backed Yes | 32c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked Yes | 32c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…b327backed Yes | 32c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dd…8117backed Yes | 62c | 40.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…871fbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 73c | 39.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 35c | 39.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 71c | 38.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed Yes | 43c | 37.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 48c | 36.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed No | 80c | 32.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…d53cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed No | 65c | 29.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…f701backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…3404backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…3024backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…a686backed Yes | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?this page
- Will AJ Dybantsa be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Darryn Peterson be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Hannes Steinbach be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Mikel Brown Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Yaxel Lendeborg be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.