TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Virtus.proof TEAM VISION, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$259,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$370,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,646 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d20…a165backed Virtus.pro33c109,697$36,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,447.689733%32 W · 65 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked TEAM VISION67c25,000$16,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,75028159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed TEAM VISION67c14,925$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed TEAM VISION67c10,999$7,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,378.8126540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed TEAM VISION70c10,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0002138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-38.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed TEAM VISION66c9,003$5,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,982.1317651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed TEAM VISION67c8,412$5,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,636.078046.3%37 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed TEAM VISION70c8,145$5,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,697.2511953.8%64 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Virtus.pro30c7,800$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,46015848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Virtus.pro29c6,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,259.9815544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed TEAM VISION67c4,439$2,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,974.123053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+56.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed Virtus.pro29c4,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8403033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed TEAM VISION67c3,814$2,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,555.389744.3%43 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac6b…7104backed TEAM VISION67c3,739$2,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,505.121631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-46.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Virtus.pro29c3,701$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,627.5336248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked TEAM VISION67c3,322$2,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225.7315050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked TEAM VISION66c3,124$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067.5499844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed TEAM VISION67c2,979$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.2621146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Virtus.pro30c2,400$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68028044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked TEAM VISION67c2,190$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.19543.2%41 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed Virtus.pro32c1,800$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.173953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa5e…1468backed TEAM VISION71c1,578$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.252157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed TEAM VISION68c1,500$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.351364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked TEAM VISION67c1,500$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00537047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed TEAM VISION68c1,473$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.0812548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed TEAM VISION71c1,408$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00048057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed TEAM VISION67c1,343$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90016055.6%89 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked TEAM VISION67c1,341$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.4728145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed TEAM VISION67c1,240$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.0243067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd22a…2a00backed TEAM VISION71c1,203$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.063050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed TEAM VISION71c1,198$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.589736.1%35 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed TEAM VISION70c1,030$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71633549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed TEAM VISION71c1,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7106053.3%32 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa83f…b857backed TEAM VISION68c999.99$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.996547.7%31 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed TEAM VISION67c900$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60314048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d5…180abacked TEAM VISION67c876$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.921136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d9…b188backed TEAM VISION67c747.76$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019855.1%54 W · 44 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked TEAM VISION67c746.27$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked TEAM VISION69c733.24$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.827060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Virtus.pro31c668.2$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.6916147.2%76 W · 85 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed TEAM VISION38c661$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.118446.7%86 W · 98 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe893…afaebacked TEAM VISION67c536.26$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.294452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed TEAM VISION66c534.99$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.4947548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed TEAM VISION67c527$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.0913145%59 W · 72 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed TEAM VISION67c504.99$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.3425547.8%122 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked Virtus.pro30c500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3504645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked TEAM VISION67c499.99$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.999242.4%39 W · 53 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37a1…bedfbacked Virtus.pro28c499.97$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.9813844.9%62 W · 76 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked TEAM VISION67c476.81$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.4661449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26c6…1e14backed Virtus.pro30c390$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2734247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Virtus.pro26c376.35$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.518437.5%69 W · 115 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked TEAM VISION72c375.1$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.4788166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd24c…3f33backed Virtus.pro39c369.23$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.232737%10 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x131a…73f9backed Virtus.pro28c357.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.142556%14 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+24.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Virtus.pro31c319$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.116159%36 W · 25 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+44.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa2c3…0566backed TEAM VISION68c305$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.158150.6%41 W · 40 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked TEAM VISION71c301.14$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.241,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b9…5699backed TEAM VISION67c298.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefab…a304backed Virtus.pro34c284.86$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.015743.9%25 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked TEAM VISION71c281.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015069.3%104 W · 46 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked TEAM VISION71c277$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.6754659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b9b…c323backed TEAM VISION66c276$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.163053.3%16 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed TEAM VISION69c268$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.225956.8%147 W · 112 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x885a…8bfdbacked TEAM VISION67c265.55$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.921050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked TEAM VISION68c260$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.541864.1%268 W · 150 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked TEAM VISION67c252.52$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.198447.6%40 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa369…3ad6backed TEAM VISION67c249.99$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.493148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed TEAM VISION71c241$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1114943.6%65 W · 84 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed TEAM VISION74c204.1$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.0329466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf142…03cbbacked Virtus.pro29c202.62$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.869137.4%34 W · 57 L-8.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7e0…0d8abacked TEAM VISION72c190.76$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3526958.7%158 W · 111 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1863…6174backed TEAM VISION66c170$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.130460.2%183 W · 121 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bce…558cbacked TEAM VISION67c147.61$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.92661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85b6…f439backed TEAM VISION67c142.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.79955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7d…8895backed TEAM VISION70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028252.5%148 W · 134 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x101f…b386backed TEAM VISION71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032154.8%176 W · 145 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed TEAM VISION71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022453.1%119 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked TEAM VISION71c132.54$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.18739.1%34 W · 53 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xafeb…6da8backed TEAM VISION71c123.15$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.44450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Virtus.pro29c113$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2312250%61 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Virtus.pro33c104.57$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4943860.5%265 W · 173 L+44.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked TEAM VISION67c104.48$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020763.3%131 W · 76 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed TEAM VISION74c100.78$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5867555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed TEAM VISION71c94.94$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4113645.6%62 W · 74 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Virtus.pro31c90$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.878516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xe9b1…6ef5backed Virtus.pro29c83.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.751741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9e7…56d8backed Virtus.pro30c83.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.141457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed TEAM VISION67c77.61$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5246354.6%253 W · 210 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14c8…c192backed TEAM VISION67c74.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d3…c0d1backed TEAM VISION71c70.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018452.2%96 W · 88 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9bb…cad6backed Virtus.pro30c69.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.937356.2%41 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d6e…2175backed TEAM VISION67c62.69$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c60…01febacked Virtus.pro34c60.01$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.314860.4%29 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed TEAM VISION70c51.27$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8924636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked TEAM VISION70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e11…d36ebacked TEAM VISION70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1a…e8a4backed TEAM VISION67c48.94$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ac…427fbacked TEAM VISION66c47.35$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.252236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7aa…abe3backed Virtus.pro34c47.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.191030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Virtus.pro30c47$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.914043.6%61 W · 79 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.