TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TEAM VISIONof Virtus.pro, TEAM VISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$295,115
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$338,330

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,115 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed TEAM VISION66c30,713$20,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,530.71,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed TEAM VISION71c14,309$10,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,164.296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Virtus.pro23c11,999$2,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,818.341,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked TEAM VISION80c11,868$9,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,402.2821650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro28c11,349$3,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,223.351,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Virtus.pro27c9,456$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.3471143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Virtus.pro23c8,898$2,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,052.651,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Virtus.pro19c6,932$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33519547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed TEAM VISION78c6,582$5,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.8588539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed TEAM VISION75c5,785$4,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.853764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Virtus.pro23c5,170$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.9443344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea1a…ac77backed Virtus.pro17c5,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-54.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Virtus.pro36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.9911953.8%64 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Virtus.pro26c4,224$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.7925143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked Virtus.pro18c4,151$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.3222031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed TEAM VISION79c4,000$3,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84056852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Virtus.pro17c3,680$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.625549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Virtus.pro22c3,486$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.1550832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Virtus.pro2c3,200$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6116232.7%53 W · 109 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Virtus.pro19c3,085$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.3424246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce6…9469backed Virtus.pro32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.991540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Virtus.pro42c2,737$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.1551049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Virtus.pro21c2,560$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.626540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed TEAM VISION73c2,505$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.7751364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed TEAM VISION79c2,476$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.963053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+56.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Virtus.pro20c2,377$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.1642145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Virtus.pro27c2,328$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.421,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Virtus.pro37c2,216$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82048843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked TEAM VISION60c2,198$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.6650850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed TEAM VISION72c1,944$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.0721158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Virtus.pro18c1,812$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.522,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f14…ec62backed TEAM VISION78c1,743$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.711258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Virtus.pro19c1,595$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.0641944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed Virtus.pro27c1,593$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.6716058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Virtus.pro19c1,549$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006053.3%32 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Virtus.pro16c1,542$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.7895342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Virtus.pro23c1,500$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.533453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked TEAM VISION59c1,443$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.065244.2%23 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Virtus.pro27c1,420$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.1845352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed TEAM VISION79c1,368$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.3315950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b1…1b71backed Virtus.pro36c1,363$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.16741.8%28 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked Virtus.pro44c1,305$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.013850%19 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed TEAM VISION70c1,291$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.3214763.3%93 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Virtus.pro2c1,200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.56132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Virtus.pro37c1,176$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4351,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Virtus.pro19c1,115$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.5240534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdc0…e6a6backed Virtus.pro20c1,080$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.771020%2 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-65.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Virtus.pro26c1,076$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.6219249%94 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Virtus.pro32c1,060$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.2733867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc790…85b1backed Virtus.pro51c1,054$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Virtus.pro16c1,039$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1810036%36 W · 64 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked TEAM VISION76c1,027$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.3912253.3%65 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Virtus.pro18c1,013$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18716147.2%76 W · 85 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Virtus.pro1c999.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Virtus.pro14c999.99$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed TEAM VISION63c999.98$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.9925547.8%122 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed TEAM VISION52c999$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.5210961.5%67 W · 42 L+11.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Virtus.pro27c997.97$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.1256945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Virtus.pro33c995.21$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.2354246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e20…a1aabacked TEAM VISION79c983.93$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.161866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked TEAM VISION73c959.92$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.91,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Virtus.pro33c958.46$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.2935737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Virtus.pro21c951.11$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4651140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Virtus.pro49c950$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.634442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked Virtus.pro22c919.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004434.1%15 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x25c6…dcacbacked Virtus.pro36c908.33$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33110653.8%57 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed Virtus.pro44c904.28$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Virtus.pro21c900$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18913251.5%68 W · 64 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed TEAM VISION50c852$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42628347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed TEAM VISION74c845.28$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.8920767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x910e…29bcbacked Virtus.pro20c798$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.65147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c1…d56dbacked Virtus.pro2c775.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.832810.7%3 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-78.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2deb…2b13backed TEAM VISION65c773.3$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.311551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked TEAM VISION71c749.99$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.559254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Virtus.pro29c744.82$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.547046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fac…b89abacked Virtus.pro17c735.88$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12522450%112 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Virtus.pro29c728.27$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.4661449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x051d…1992backed Virtus.pro10c705.89$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708213.4%11 W · 71 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb24f…3432backed Virtus.pro15c700$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10513742.3%58 W · 79 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfae5…f940backed Virtus.pro3c700$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206647%31 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Virtus.pro13c700$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8896245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Virtus.pro18c698.87$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.831248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed TEAM VISION73c694.76$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.5829546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Virtus.pro27c693$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.029744.3%43 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Virtus.pro28c683.16$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4958746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Virtus.pro30c666.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20039343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Virtus.pro25c659.87$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.0960251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Virtus.pro21c647$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.51,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked TEAM VISION79c629.98$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.632756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ace…3038backed TEAM VISION80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12523562.1%146 W · 89 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed TEAM VISION66c602.15$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.6515050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Virtus.pro26c600$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15765625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed Virtus.pro31c600$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.668934.8%31 W · 58 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Virtus.pro22c532.13$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0710138.6%39 W · 62 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked TEAM VISION64c521$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.566744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed Virtus.pro10c520.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50375.4%2 W · 35 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Virtus.pro34c510.91$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17239042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Virtus.pro20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10041037.3%153 W · 257 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Virtus.pro33c500$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.6415050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Virtus.pro37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.