MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x994f74d8551af44bf5bff87c229dba0962d1b6ce3418ac0e991b7fb83ae1930c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 5,688$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,496.44 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 62c | 5,645$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 4,990$2,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,590.9 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 54c | 3,801$2,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,066.14 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 44c | 3,644$1,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.32 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 56c | 3,640$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.6 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.99 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 56c | 1,846$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.38 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 45c | 1,495$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.75 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 1,041$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.32 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Under | 54c | 937.21$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 54c | 778$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.88 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 60c | 629.6$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.76 | 301 | 50.8%153 W · 148 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 46c | 563$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.98 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 533.5$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.27 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…528ebacked Under | 47c | 468.62$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…339fbacked Over | 54c | 431.82$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 399.17$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.21 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 44c | 298.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.55 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Over | 44c | 250.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.87 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 208.19$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 46c | 204.22$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.33 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 56c | 196.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 44c | 181$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…982dbacked Over | 51c | 174.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.42 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 140.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 122.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 59c | 106.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 49c | 102.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 52c | 102.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 56c | 99.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 48c | 97.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…7eccbacked Under | 60c | 93.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 46c | 78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 50.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 48c | 44.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 47c | 42.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 290 | 43.1%125 W · 165 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…5c16backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 46c | 34.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 47c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Under | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 44c | 26.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 51c | 23.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 55c | 21.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 53c | 21.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9cbdbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 16.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.