NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9998955b4f659ae99e92420487a11bbe8736ca7aaf0c0a0c0f6271dd2592695d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Under | 54c | 22,028$11,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,808.72 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 46c | 5,281$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,848.31 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 48c | 5,280$2,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,751.73 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Over | 49c | 4,466$2,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,279.05 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a43…565fbacked Over | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.67 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 49c | 3,694$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,883.88 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 2,716$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…4c2ebacked Under | 51c | 1,948$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.66 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Under | 53c | 1,809$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 1,633$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.05 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 1,200$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 386.82$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 52c | 372$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.44 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 51c | 217.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.18 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 48c | 109.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…fc6ebacked Under | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Under | 52c | 95.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 51c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Under | 42c | 82.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 157 | 58%91 W · 66 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 51c | 75.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 52.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 32.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…61b7backed Under | 52c | 26.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 52c | 22.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jock Landale: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Pelicans vs. GrizzliesPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.