NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bb5dc96ced44cfd3c46cfa49f65beac54ed1ccf6a4987d3e09f3dc378ed7500
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Grizzlies, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Pelicans | 50c | 33,018$16,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,486.14 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 16,862$8,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,410.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 6,474$3,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,283.03 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 52c | 6,000$3,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,090 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Grizzlies | 51c | 4,434$2,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240.52 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Grizzlies | 50c | 3,387$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.38 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Pelicans | 48c | 3,167$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.94 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Pelicans | 49c | 3,166$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.66 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Grizzlies | 56c | 2,100$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.63 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies | 50c | 2,022$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.98 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…8913backed Pelicans | 50c | 1,970$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 1,882$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.82 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies | 50c | 1,600$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 47c | 1,572$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.49 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 48c | 1,563$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Grizzlies | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Grizzlies | 49c | 1,500$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Grizzlies | 49c | 1,030$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.2 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Grizzlies | 55c | 599.98$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Grizzlies | 51c | 500$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Grizzlies | 56c | 491.65$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 364 | 49.7%181 W · 183 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 45c | 487.9$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.35 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Grizzlies | 53c | 187.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Grizzlies | 56c | 179$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Grizzlies | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Grizzlies | 55c | 145.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Pelicans | 45c | 133.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Pelicans | 45c | 104$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…7061backed Grizzlies | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Pelicans | 44c | 98.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Pelicans | 46c | 98.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Grizzlies | 24c | 94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed Grizzlies | 53c | 93.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Grizzlies | 51c | 93.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Pelicans | 48c | 90.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Pelicans | 45c | 84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Pelicans | 45c | 78.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 65.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Grizzlies | 51c | 63.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 58.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Grizzlies | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc43d…8928backed Grizzlies | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Pelicans | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 219 | 48.9%107 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Grizzlies | 51c | 23.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…1bfabacked Pelicans | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jock Landale: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Pelicans vs. GrizzliesPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.