NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x770d7e455a7c0b305a619401bd7d79841f32a548dce94c9eb79eb80bd88f95ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Grizzlies, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 55c | 3,144$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.3 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 48c | 2,487$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 1,667$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Pelicans | 54c | 1,122$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.02 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Grizzlies | 51c | 1,000$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.35 | 153 | 36.6%56 W · 97 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 53c | 935.51$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0f…780bbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 832.5$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.3 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Pelicans | 62c | 800$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.56 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Grizzlies | 46c | 736$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.92 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Pelicans | 49c | 620.7$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.51 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Pelicans | 53c | 616$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.29 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans | 53c | 495.01$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.66 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 414.09$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.42 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Grizzlies | 34c | 392$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Pelicans | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Grizzlies | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Grizzlies | 45c | 282$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies | 43c | 262.88$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.19 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Grizzlies | 46c | 215.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Grizzlies | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd550…9228backed Grizzlies | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…1f1ebacked Pelicans | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Grizzlies | 43c | 175.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Grizzlies | 46c | 145$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pelicans | 54c | 117.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Pelicans | 54c | 113.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Pelicans | 54c | 110.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies | 42c | 81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Pelicans | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Grizzlies | 50c | 67.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Pelicans | 55c | 63.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Pelicans | 51c | 60.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Pelicans | 48c | 47.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Pelicans | 65c | 44.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Grizzlies | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Grizzlies | 46c | 41.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Pelicans | 58c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Pelicans | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Grizzlies | 48c | 39.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Pelicans | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa68d…e03bbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Pelicans | 53c | 23.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Pelicans | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jock Landale: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Pelicans vs. GrizzliesPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.