Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x999c1f7871652fadc3a7f34a58968d8c5bf3b46bdf1c68bcd9db7e267a1bee71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fulham FCof Liverpool FC, Fulham FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Fulham FC | 75c | 24,011$18,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,010.86 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Liverpool FC | 25c | 13,638$3,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,409.61 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Fulham FC | 74c | 10,000$7,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Liverpool FC | 19c | 7,201$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.7 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Liverpool FC | 25c | 5,445$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.21 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Liverpool FC | 26c | 4,100$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Liverpool FC | 25c | 3,551$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.7 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0a…4a63backed Liverpool FC | 28c | 3,161$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.38 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Liverpool FC | 26c | 1,922$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.24 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Liverpool FC | 26c | 1,816$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.16 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | +13.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…b558backed Liverpool FC | 2c | 1,600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Fulham FC | 74c | 1,554$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.04 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Fulham FC | 74c | 1,253$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.8 | 330 | 57%188 W · 142 L | +17.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…b988backed Fulham FC | 73c | 1,216$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.75 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…1905backed Liverpool FC | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Liverpool FC | 25c | 1,120$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 420 | 48.6%204 W · 216 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Liverpool FC | 31c | 1,104$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.88 | 380 | 40.5%154 W · 226 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…eedcbacked Fulham FC | 71c | 1,050$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.59 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Liverpool FC | 26c | 800$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Fulham FC | 74c | 799.99$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 369 | 56.9%210 W · 159 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Liverpool FC | 32c | 750$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.75 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Fulham FC | 73c | 460.84$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Fulham FC | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Liverpool FC | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef8…48aabacked Liverpool FC | 27c | 362.19$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked Liverpool FC | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed Liverpool FC | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Liverpool FC | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.9wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Fulham FC | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…1950backed Fulham FC | 74c | 270.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Fulham FC | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 292 | 59.2%173 W · 119 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Liverpool FC | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa3…16c7backed Fulham FC | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Fulham FC | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 379 | 58%220 W · 159 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Liverpool FC | 26c | 153.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Fulham FC | 72c | 148.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 409 | 53.3%218 W · 191 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Liverpool FC | 32c | 130.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 177 | 45.2%80 W · 97 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Liverpool FC | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 232 | 20.7%48 W · 184 L | -12.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Fulham FC | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 350 | 56.9%199 W · 151 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Liverpool FC | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Liverpool FC | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Liverpool FC | 27c | 93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Liverpool FC | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Liverpool FC | 20c | 77.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Fulham FC | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 269 | 59.9%161 W · 108 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Fulham FC | 75c | 69.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…a3bcbacked Liverpool FC | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Fulham FC | 76c | 60.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Fulham FC | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 331 | 56.8%188 W · 143 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Fulham FC | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Fulham FC | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 284 | 58.8%167 W · 117 L | +16.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Fulham FC | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 262 | 59.5%156 W · 106 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Fulham FC | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 236 | 58.1%137 W · 99 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Fulham FC | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 330 | 57%188 W · 142 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Fulham FC | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 258 | 58.1%150 W · 108 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Fulham FC | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 255 | 58.8%150 W · 105 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Fulham FC | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 290 | 57.9%168 W · 122 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Fulham FC | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 273 | 54.9%150 W · 123 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Fulham FC | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 315 | 57.8%182 W · 133 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Fulham FC | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 283 | 59.4%168 W · 115 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Fulham FC | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 205 | 56.6%116 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Fulham FC | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 321 | 58.6%188 W · 133 L | +18.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Liverpool FC | 25c | 59.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Fulham FC | 73c | 55.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 409 | 42.1%172 W · 237 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Liverpool FC | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Fulham FC | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Fulham FC | 74c | 52.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 228 | 58.8%134 W · 94 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Liverpool FC | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…2eb1backed Liverpool FC | 29c | 49.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Liverpool FC | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Liverpool FC | 25c | 40.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Fulham FC | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf443…1ea1backed Fulham FC | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Fulham FC | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Fulham FC | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Fulham FC | 77c | 24.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Fulham FC | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Fulham FC | 74c | 19.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb1…f87dbacked Fulham FC | 73c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)this page
- Fulham FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fulham FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.