TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,931
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,994

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,931 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5a45…f628backed Over52c969.61$504 inLost-$503.6334855.2%192 W · 156 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c883.01$425 inWon+$457.898,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under56c545.98$305 inWon+$240.531,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over44c476.16$210 inLost-$209.514,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Under71c281.69$200 inWon+$81.6921950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under38c232.01$89 inWon+$143.113,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over29c190.22$55 inLost-$55.243,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Over78c93.59$73 inLost-$7331151.1%159 W · 152 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Over41c85.68$35 inLost-$35.3439047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9c…e966backed Over62c80.65$50 inLost-$5014547.6%69 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…ce87backed Over62c77.76$48 inLost-$48.2115149%74 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under60c66.71$40 inWon+$26.8765872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf095…111bbacked Under43c64.37$27 inWon+$36.9911250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over48c60.74$29 inLost-$29.393,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Over60c59.51$36 inLost-$361428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-52.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under46c51.07$24 inWon+$27.465,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f4…7518backed Over61c40.98$25 inLost-$251346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Over57c34.37$20 inLost-$19.5918345.9%84 W · 99 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.