NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf67b6d5d0a76a5118a75a4d54bd60df90c71d4c106c914e861a0cd981fbf9fe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 28c | 4,895$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Cavaliers | 70c | 4,273$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.72 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Nets | 25c | 3,397$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.82 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…eb28backed Cavaliers | 63c | 3,114$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.46 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Cavaliers | 65c | 3,058$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.77 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nets | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Nets | 30c | 1,224$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.97 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Cavaliers | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Nets | 32c | 886.99$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.75 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Cavaliers | 62c | 715$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.96 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Nets | 13c | 646.72$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Cavaliers | 64c | 592$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.11 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nets | 26c | 586.35$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.03 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Nets | 37c | 507.89$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.15 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nets | 37c | 403.77$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.41 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nets | 26c | 398.91$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nets | 32c | 390.34$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.49 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Nets | 39c | 384$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Cavaliers | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Cavaliers | 62c | 242.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.35 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54d3…0d2abacked Nets | 37c | 228.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Cavaliers | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Nets | 41c | 155.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Nets | 41c | 145.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Nets | 26c | 131.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Nets | 46c | 128.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Nets | 30c | 92.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Cavaliers | 54c | 88.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Nets | 39c | 81.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Cavaliers | 61c | 81.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nets | 37c | 79.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…3efdbacked Nets | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Cavaliers | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…e03fbacked Cavaliers | 63c | 47.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nets | 38c | 42.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Nets | 38c | 41.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cavaliers | 54c | 38.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 410 | 38%156 W · 254 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Nets | 33c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…8063backed Cavaliers | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Nets | 42c | 29.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Cavaliers | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadad…5857backed Cavaliers | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 18.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Cavaliers | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)this page
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Nets vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.