NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c16cbc4fccdfb27f327196a5b44eb97d6954de607a7d379013bf26a6cd55c9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Cavaliers | 47c | 40,000$18,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,200 | 431 | 48.7%210 W · 221 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Nets | 53c | 35,939$19,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,047.72 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers | 47c | 17,240$8,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,137.28 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c2…722ebacked Cavaliers | 48c | 12,500$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,500 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Cavaliers | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked Nets | 53c | 9,434$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Nets | 53c | 5,660$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Cavaliers | 48c | 4,209$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,188.86 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nets | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Nets | 53c | 4,000$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,116.32 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Nets | 50c | 3,518$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.09 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Nets | 50c | 2,668$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Nets | 50c | 2,260$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.2 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Cavaliers | 48c | 1,871$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.88 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 22c | 1,311$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cavaliers | 47c | 1,121$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.23 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Nets | 52c | 981.25$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.66 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Nets | 50c | 897.96$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.98 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 553.95$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.51 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 51c | 497.34$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Nets | 52c | 480$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Cavaliers | 48c | 420$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ede…2de3backed Nets | 54c | 408.44$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.52 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…9c28backed Nets | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 318.57$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.9 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers | 46c | 304.84$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.61 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Nets | 52c | 300.01$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.67 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nets | 51c | 261.18$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.02 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Nets | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…ce09backed Cavaliers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 128 | 65.6%84 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Cavaliers | 47c | 202.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nets | 51c | 196.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Cavaliers | 47c | 187$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.11 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Cavaliers | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Nets | 52c | 140.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cavaliers | 49c | 133$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Nets | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Cavaliers | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 76.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 70.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Nets | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers | 46c | 56.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e0…ee84backed Cavaliers | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Nets | 52c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…eaafbacked Nets | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb03…ddcebacked Cavaliers | 48c | 41.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…fe0ebacked Nets | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Nets | 51c | 39.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…b214backed Nets | 53c | 38.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cavaliers | 47c | 31.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Nets | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7178…8fb9backed Cavaliers | 52c | 29.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…6d84backed Nets | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…aea9backed Nets | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers | 74c | 25.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 232 | 49.6%115 W · 117 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Nets | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Nets | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 307 | 43%132 W · 175 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Cavaliers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 215 | 53.5%115 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Cavaliers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…6bf0backed Cavaliers | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…4426backed Nets | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)this page
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Nets vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.