NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98b128fab3d2054708ebbbce7928fae344f2703737c4e735861a3b77a81b2937
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 9,090$4,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,361.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 52c | 7,214$3,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,463.17 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 48c | 6,250$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.99 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 2,949$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 53c | 2,925$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.5 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 46c | 675.84$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.57 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 52c | 595.95$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.06 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 384.44$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.53 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Over | 46c | 281.02$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.27 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…da6dbacked Under | 51c | 253.13$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 48c | 223.57$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 51c | 199.68$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.18 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 342 | 48.8%167 W · 175 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 52c | 158$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed Over | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 49c | 120.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 48c | 111.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…36bbbacked Under | 51c | 97.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Under | 51c | 96.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 93.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 48c | 59.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 47c | 53.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 199 | 50.8%101 W · 98 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 46.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…f519backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 31.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…aea9backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…d347backed Under | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…132abacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 44c | 23.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 23.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 215 | 53.5%115 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5this page
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Nets vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.