NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc238dd945ddfd081b7cf726bd5473411c97e348a14ab36d9b6f249daa0b94b13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Over | 53c | 7,536$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 7,299$3,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,874.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 53c | 3,622$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.66 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 3,404$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.07 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 52c | 544$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.88 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 535.79$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.9 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 48c | 444$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.88 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 226.5$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.04 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 183.74$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7895…896cbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 54.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 48.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 44c | 47.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…89a4backed Under | 46c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…68c1backed Over | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 37.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Over | 53c | 36.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 56c | 36.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…6dd5backed Under | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…c0c2backed Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…a6ebbacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…c888backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5this page
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Nets vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.