NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fb92dd7ed24aa7e0ff0c544031cd659022fe3abd60ebd99bbd4d26b25731bfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Cavaliers | 51c | 23,906$12,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,602.96 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Nets | 49c | 14,898$7,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,300 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Nets | 48c | 5,823$2,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,821.75 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Cavaliers | 52c | 4,954$2,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,377.91 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Nets | 48c | 4,278$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059.8 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Cavaliers | 52c | 4,217$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.03 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked Nets | 48c | 3,750$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 3c | 3,159$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nets | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cavaliers | 52c | 2,780$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.23 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nets | 47c | 2,323$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.02 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Nets | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers | 51c | 1,493$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.5 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Cavaliers | 51c | 1,400$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…4c2ebacked Cavaliers | 54c | 1,267$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.97 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Nets | 48c | 1,217$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.8 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Nets | 46c | 707.25$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.34 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 46c | 698.51$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Nets | 48c | 609$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.32 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed Cavaliers | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 236 | 44.1%104 W · 132 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Cavaliers | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nets | 47c | 442.02$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.6 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Cavaliers | 51c | 414$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.86 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Nets | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Nets | 47c | 322.31$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.92 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Cavaliers | 51c | 313.58$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.65 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Nets | 48c | 244.96$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.07 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nets | 45c | 223.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.53 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cavaliers | 56c | 216.44$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Nets | 32c | 200.46$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4785…921ebacked Nets | 48c | 136.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Nets | 44c | 129.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Nets | 48c | 106.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 234 | 53%124 W · 110 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd075…3d1fbacked Nets | 24c | 105.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Nets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 69.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Nets | 48c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Nets | 47c | 58.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Cavaliers | 76c | 56.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Cavaliers | 53c | 49.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Cavaliers | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers | 80c | 39.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Nets | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Cavaliers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Nets | 47c | 33.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 307 | 43%132 W · 175 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nets | 48c | 26.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Nets | 50c | 26.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Cavaliers | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…e878backed Cavaliers | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd02…5d8bbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 21.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b728backed Cavaliers | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)this page
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Nets vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.