Tennis · resolved market

Miyazaki: August Holmgren vs Yuto Oki

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a3034afb053b2f8b07fec079966377a7ce3821b783699ff5074d0e2208d91d7

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yuto Okiof August Holmgren, Yuto Oki
Resolved: Mar 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $308,639
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $315,401

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,639 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd551…d570backed August Holmgren	0c	189,873$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.61	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked August Holmgren	80c	6,592$5,274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,273.88	2,489	45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L	-27.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc8e…f961backed Yuto Oki	13c	5,242$671 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,570.95	57	24.6%14 W · 43 L	-6.4wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yuto Oki	28c	5,153$1,447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,705.67	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Yuto Oki	68c	3,076$2,092 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$983.99	6,599	50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L	+259.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed August Holmgren	45c	2,656$1,208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,208.29	1,106	41%454 W · 652 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ac7…336cbacked Yuto Oki	41c	2,426$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,426.06	76	39.5%30 W · 46 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed August Holmgren	73c	2,316$1,682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,682.39	8,217	45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L	+166.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ea…225bbacked August Holmgren	70c	2,156$1,501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500.59	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	69cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ef2…79f9backed Yuto Oki	44c	1,896$829 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,067.23	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Yuto Oki	27c	1,809$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,315.2	4,703	49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L	+166.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yuto Oki	7c	1,508$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,406.62	11,435	43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L	+17.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5569…c927backed Yuto Oki	6c	1,375$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,287.24	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Yuto Oki	11c	1,364$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,213.7	1,768	43.2%764 W · 1,004 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yuto Oki	9c	1,208$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,096.71	3,871	35%1,353 W · 2,518 L	+92.5wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Yuto Oki	12c	1,146$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,002.86	308	57.1%176 W · 132 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed August Holmgren	22c	770.29$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.01	359	32.6%117 W · 242 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yuto Oki	15c	699.27$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$591.34	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed August Holmgren	48c	675$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.51	269	41.3%111 W · 158 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yuto Oki	11c	600$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$534	466	49.8%232 W · 234 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked August Holmgren	46c	585$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.27	990	44.8%444 W · 546 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked August Holmgren	50c	529$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.7	506	44.9%227 W · 279 L	-12.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa163…934dbacked Yuto Oki	4c	500$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$478	307	15.6%48 W · 259 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6a84…dd32backed August Holmgren	56c	476$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.48	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+4.3wins	+0.11per pick	44cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked August Holmgren	56c	429$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.22	397	51.4%204 W · 193 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed August Holmgren	65c	400$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	1,923	55.4%1,066 W · 857 L	-44.9wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Yuto Oki	10c	399.97$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$360.21	1,973	46.3%914 W · 1,059 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Yuto Oki	11c	385.54$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$341.93	2,855	49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L	+21.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Yuto Oki	4c	381.22$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$365.9	371	53.9%200 W · 171 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed August Holmgren	57c	352.95$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.43	6,720	36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L	-95.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Yuto Oki	31c	352.33$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.95	6,786	48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L	+56.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb0…f195backed Yuto Oki	32c	311.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.65	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed August Holmgren	72c	306.37$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.37	3,072	44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L	-30.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9541…3b71backed August Holmgren	78c	291$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.11	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x700a…58a5backed Yuto Oki	5c	282.98$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.09	180	20.6%37 W · 143 L	-14.0wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yuto Oki	9c	270.04$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.6	451	47.2%213 W · 238 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed August Holmgren	56c	269.32$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.67	9,286	44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L	-245.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed August Holmgren	34c	267.91$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.33	1,379	16.4%226 W · 1,153 L	-108.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Yuto Oki	72c	245.32$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.07	503	64.6%325 W · 178 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	64cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked August Holmgren	60c	242.22$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.33	4,426	51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L	+136.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed August Holmgren	64c	241.04$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.27	238	65.5%156 W · 82 L	+31.3wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+20%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yuto Oki	39c	238.98$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.34	1,852	44.5%825 W · 1,027 L	-20.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68af…ca81backed Yuto Oki	23c	227.35$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.07	217	20.3%44 W · 173 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5444…bbdabacked August Holmgren	74c	202.9$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	331	49.2%163 W · 168 L	+9.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yuto Oki	19c	192.67$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.59	3,270	13.8%450 W · 2,820 L	-549.1wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed August Holmgren	76c	186.62$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.1	849	68.4%581 W · 268 L	+25.9wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x810d…6080backed Yuto Oki	9c	144.8$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.58	139	55.4%77 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed August Holmgren	75c	139.99$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.42	148	50%74 W · 74 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26b9…9ab5backed Yuto Oki	19c	134.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.08	212	56.1%119 W · 93 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc539…5ec2backed Yuto Oki	10c	109.9$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.69	328	43.9%144 W · 184 L	-11.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe9c…1700backed Yuto Oki	9c	106.8$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.66	150	59.3%89 W · 61 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Yuto Oki	14c	105.07$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.07	1,258	50%629 W · 629 L	-4.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36cf…d3aebacked Yuto Oki	12c	101.92$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.69	449	46.1%207 W · 242 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1dcf…f174backed Yuto Oki	32c	101.85$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.85	93	51.6%48 W · 45 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Yuto Oki	40c	100.54$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.54	847	36%305 W · 542 L	-35.7wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91c0…e4ccbacked August Holmgren	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	515	39.8%205 W · 310 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed Yuto Oki	10c	100$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	87	24.1%21 W · 66 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Yuto Oki	11c	100$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89	59	18.6%11 W · 48 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Yuto Oki	51c	98.71$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.71	444	48.9%217 W · 227 L	-13.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yuto Oki	11c	91$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.99	1,489	32.6%486 W · 1,003 L	+22.2wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5e…e0f7backed August Holmgren	60c	91$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.6	275	52%143 W · 132 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x433d…a85abacked Yuto Oki	21c	90$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.1	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91ff…edfdbacked August Holmgren	75c	86.68$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.26	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Yuto Oki	50c	85$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.6	2,118	55.9%1,185 W · 933 L	+40.1wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed August Holmgren	34c	79.15$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.22	694	38%264 W · 430 L	+21.0wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd51…ce69backed Yuto Oki	43c	53.48$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.33	371	56.3%209 W · 162 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82e7…c61cbacked August Holmgren	78c	52.97$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.3	194	66%128 W · 66 L	-7.1wins	-0.04per pick	70cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a30…34b1backed August Holmgren	77c	52.03$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	169	61.5%104 W · 65 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ec…41e8backed Yuto Oki	22c	50$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.01	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+66.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4008…2942backed August Holmgren	68c	49.7$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.77	60	41.7%25 W · 35 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-18%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2a7…3576backed August Holmgren	78c	44.71$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.65	152	58.6%89 W · 63 L	-6.8wins	-0.04per pick	63cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a0a…e318backed Yuto Oki	80c	44.09$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.86	58	65.5%38 W · 20 L	+5.1wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yuto Oki	38c	40.33$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.89	368	39.1%144 W · 224 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed August Holmgren	29c	40$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.45	399	41.9%167 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb17…32b2backed Yuto Oki	28c	38.69$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.89	208	36.5%76 W · 132 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd866…55e0backed August Holmgren	67c	37.26$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.02	384	60.4%232 W · 152 L	+29.2wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb659…48e5backed August Holmgren	50c	36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.94	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	40cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8381…ef93backed Yuto Oki	41c	34.63$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.47	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa478…2779backed August Holmgren	80c	32.87$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.25	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde37…f6e9backed August Holmgren	70c	30$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.1	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a67…0b8abacked August Holmgren	63c	26$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	144	58.3%84 W · 60 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbabf…10debacked August Holmgren	58c	23.53$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed August Holmgren	68c	19.97$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-7.6wins	-0.25per pick	44cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x1477…29b6backed August Holmgren	62c	17.53$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Miyazaki: August Holmgren vs Yuto Okithis page
August Holmgren vs. Yuto Oki: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Holmgren vs. Oki: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
Holmgren vs. Oki: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Set 1 Winner: Holmgren vs OkiHolmgren won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Miyazaki: August Holmgren vs Yuto Oki

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event