CS2 · resolved market
BLAST Bounty: TNL vs. Natus Vincere
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a347f1b822ff375e5e6f342592d8335bc944558a9964ad77cb55a537982a0f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof TNL, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed TNL | 23c | 14,888$3,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,438.9 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…831abacked TNL | 21c | 14,571$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,059.89 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed TNL | 18c | 11,984$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.69 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed TNL | 33c | 7,684$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,561.09 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed TNL | 26c | 4,385$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.79 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 4,000$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed TNL | 14c | 2,721$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.93 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…1986backed TNL | 33c | 2,661$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed TNL | 19c | 2,105$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed TNL | 18c | 1,734$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.32 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.9 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed TNL | 16c | 1,609$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.94 | 172 | 30.8%53 W · 119 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.35 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 105 | 38.1%40 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked TNL | 13c | 1,315$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.98 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed TNL | 16c | 1,248$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.72 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 1,037$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.36 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked TNL | 24c | 1,032$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.18 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…9026backed TNL | 19c | 921.05$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 883.87$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.53 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed TNL | 20c | 850.77$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.67 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed TNL | 26c | 799.99$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 682.29$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.7 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed TNL | 10c | 656.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed TNL | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked TNL | 25c | 575.45$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.09 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 574.13$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.97 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 525.01$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.75 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 521.55$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed TNL | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 482.23$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.23 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked TNL | 22c | 478.78$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…d8bebacked TNL | 11c | 426.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed TNL | 16c | 418.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 402.91$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.71 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 379.63$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.43 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked TNL | 15c | 353.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked TNL | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed TNL | 17c | 334.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 332$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 279$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed TNL | 12c | 267.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked TNL | 27c | 246$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed TNL | 15c | 199.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…c747backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 170$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 161.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c0…a00ebacked TNL | 25c | 141.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7752…445dbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…1218backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 120.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed TNL | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe627…ffaabacked TNL | 23c | 118.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…79d2backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 377 | 52%196 W · 181 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…d552backed TNL | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 186 | 24.2%45 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed TNL | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 233 | 51.5%120 W · 113 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…4e87backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 57.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…4578backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…67f0backed TNL | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…0a71backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 36.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 364 | 37.4%136 W · 228 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe755…cc53backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 22.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a71…f9c9backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 20.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1671…b758backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.