NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9abb7fef9fb59f71322ab7d8955608bc547ccdcd5c928b53bff1c71a015f4c4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 9,998$4,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,098.95 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Under | 50c | 6,788$3,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,393.17 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 49c | 5,704$2,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,901.08 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.98 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 47c | 4,552$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,412.45 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,805$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 1,759$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.26 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…85dbbacked Under | 1c | 1,565$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 1,382$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.03 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Under | 50c | 831.86$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.93 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 51c | 797.94$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.95 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 47c | 510.34$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.48 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 50c | 499$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.5 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 50c | 494.74$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.37 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 54c | 488$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.52 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Under | 51c | 331.37$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…280cbacked Under | 36c | 309$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 54c | 232.96$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 48c | 231.86$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.09 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 54c | 217.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cb…6204backed Under | 52c | 209.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…57c8backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 161.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26fa…eb29backed Under | 58c | 148.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 131$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 46c | 130.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7d5abacked Under | 55c | 109.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Over | 50c | 88.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 216 | 45.8%99 W · 117 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 50c | 57.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…5bc8backed Under | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 51c | 40.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Over | 50c | 38.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 38.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 52.6%70 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…c504backed Under | 54c | 37.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Over | 50c | 32.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 48c | 28.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 54c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…5e2dbacked Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 51c | 20.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…31b8backed Under | 56c | 19.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-0.5)Pistons won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Moses Moody: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Pistons vs. WarriorsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.