NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4469c2800a9d7b839a6b77de4f7d639c91dad5c3121e40d010218d2fc250a84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 54c | 23,142$12,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,650.72 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Under | 46c | 6,094$2,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,803.24 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…24f9backed Under | 46c | 5,642$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,595.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 5,177$2,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.6 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Over | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,299.95 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 46c | 3,826$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.55 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Under | 46c | 2,541$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 2,496$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.09 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dee…3d1bbacked Over | 55c | 1,773$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.95 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Under | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.98 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 46c | 1,111$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.06 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 54c | 726.47$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.65 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…cbe2backed Under | 46c | 667$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.82 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 46c | 650$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 46c | 468.17$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.36 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1c…fb66backed Under | 46c | 430.43$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Under | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…0b85backed Under | 46c | 216.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -15.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 203$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 47c | 186.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…ab6fbacked Over | 54c | 107.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 46c | 107$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…8886backed Over | 59c | 86.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 45c | 54.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…1fd6backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 45c | 39.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fe…74e1backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f95…1f16backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb4…5c6bbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb762…3d4abacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…95e7backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x911a…dbd3backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…82dcbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…1a9cbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4e…490abacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…5ce8backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x266d…083fbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 47c | 29.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Over | 53c | 29.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb6…3642backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb690…648bbacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 55c | 27.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…4858backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 26.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed Under | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3e…6a59backed Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-0.5)Pistons won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Moses Moody: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Pistons vs. WarriorsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.