NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Warriors: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf4c447757bdc43c6cc235dd929775e71c5b7a951a929a5fa53311da538fe0ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Warriors | 61c | 6,000$3,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,660 | 310 | 44.8%139 W · 171 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Pistons | 39c | 5,920$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,611.2 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4dd7backed Warriors | 24c | 4,406$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.12 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Pistons | 68c | 2,430$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.92 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pistons | 69c | 1,586$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.46 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Pistons | 75c | 977.17$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.29 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…742abacked Warriors | 64c | 778.52$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Pistons | 77c | 144.64$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Warriors | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Pistons | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Pistons | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Warriors | 34c | 41.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345b…8cbdbacked Pistons | 49c | 40.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b0…b854backed Pistons | 79c | 38.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pistons | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Pistons | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Warriors: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-0.5)Pistons won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Moses Moody: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Pistons vs. WarriorsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.