NFL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Cardinals: O/U 34.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ae8fdebe3acff2e392942a3c719bf10b45f4536538d3a6567af7b20811ec2d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed Under | 53c | 9,490$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 48c | 5,500$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,859.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 3,689$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.51 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Over | 46c | 2,571$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 2,190$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.66 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 53c | 2,056$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421a…eb6ebacked Under | 52c | 995.33$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Under | 51c | 919.2$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 53c | 612$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.36 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 54c | 554.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 46c | 500$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…87c9backed Over | 49c | 415$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 47c | 276$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.66 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757a…1f84backed Over | 53c | 187.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 71c | 172.04$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 47c | 121$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Under | 52c | 93.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Under | 54c | 88.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Over | 48c | 69.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 54c | 67.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 37c | 57.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 53c | 28.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 48c | 24.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Cardinals: O/U 34.5this page
- Panthers vs. CardinalsPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Cardinals: 1H O/U 17.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Cardinals: O/U 32.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Cardinals: O/U 35.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Cardinals: O/U 37.5Over won
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Panthers (-2.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Panthers (-3.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.