NFL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Cardinals: O/U 35.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1baa8076a86c36d46e5c88714aab3c28a617b70a82e827629e34c013aa2bdd2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 50c | 5,126$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,565.68 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 55c | 4,618$2,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,545.37 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 43c | 3,541$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.22 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Under | 55c | 2,300$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 1,964$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.5 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 961.87$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.22 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 42c | 482.24$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.7 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 419.45$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.12 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…0807backed Over | 46c | 348.1$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 47c | 275.93$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.37 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 54c | 197$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Over | 50c | 139.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca50…7691backed Under | 52c | 105.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Over | 44c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…de06backed Under | 54c | 70.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…2e2dbacked Under | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Over | 44c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 52c | 59.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 42c | 58.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 46c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 56.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 49c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 54c | 36.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…1e7ebacked Under | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Over | 46c | 30.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Under | 57c | 25.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 51c | 21.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Cardinals: O/U 35.5this page
- Panthers vs. CardinalsPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Cardinals: 1H O/U 17.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Cardinals: O/U 32.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Cardinals: O/U 34.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Cardinals: O/U 37.5Over won
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Panthers (-2.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Panthers (-3.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.