TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of T1, HANJIN BRION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$541,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$654,120

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $541,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 409 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec92…6b59backed HANJIN BRION0c27,777$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7716511.5%19 W · 146 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+70.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed HANJIN BRION21c25,000$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,249.981,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed HANJIN BRION18c19,566$3,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,464.2153750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed HANJIN BRION22c16,482$3,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,587.3559450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…4d1fbacked T176c15,075$11,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,663.21968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x05b5…037fbacked T174c13,421$9,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,423.14957.1%28 W · 21 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed HANJIN BRION19c13,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,52082352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x678b…24a4backed HANJIN BRION11c10,566$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed HANJIN BRION9c9,999$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.8732440.4%131 W · 193 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked T179c7,649$6,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.3438462%238 W · 146 L-0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked T153c7,283$3,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,404.5567760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked T179c7,269$5,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.5367250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed T180c6,617$5,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.2225269.8%176 W · 76 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed T178c5,928$4,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.221,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed HANJIN BRION20c5,835$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.2855639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd812…2558backed HANJIN BRION18c5,391$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.3221137%78 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed HANJIN BRION20c5,117$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.813,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked HANJIN BRION36c5,111$1,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,833.867552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed HANJIN BRION22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.9817133.9%58 W · 113 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c75…1b0dbacked HANJIN BRION8c4,746$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.759129.7%27 W · 64 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed HANJIN BRION22c4,613$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.361,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa8…b715backed T175c4,569$3,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.213100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked T179c3,949$3,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.072,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed HANJIN BRION20c3,791$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.171,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked HANJIN BRION20c3,713$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.5670456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13b4…f4d9backed T174c3,408$2,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.5726062.7%163 W · 97 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed HANJIN BRION19c3,006$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.748533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked T178c3,000$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66096057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked HANJIN BRION23c3,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.9923252.6%122 W · 110 L+20.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed T180c2,964$2,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.882953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ea…832fbacked HANJIN BRION24c2,945$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.5320339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed HANJIN BRION18c2,852$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.4339447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf344…13ffbacked T179c2,777$2,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.1828166.5%187 W · 94 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked HANJIN BRION25c2,768$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.7485742.7%366 W · 491 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked T180c2,727$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.541,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed HANJIN BRION13c2,486$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.3325952.9%137 W · 122 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed HANJIN BRION39c2,446$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.6439964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed HANJIN BRION44c2,419$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06345248%217 W · 235 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked T174c2,041$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.9267553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked T178c2,028$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.1352065.4%340 W · 180 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked HANJIN BRION19c2,013$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.4155955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed HANJIN BRION27c2,000$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.4451348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbd2…f8a0backed HANJIN BRION17c1,999$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.758560%51 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked T159c1,974$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.9779653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc07e…8ae0backed T179c1,843$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.133100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked HANJIN BRION16c1,840$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.2628852.1%150 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78d9…70f6backed HANJIN BRION9c1,812$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3829527.1%80 W · 215 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed HANJIN BRION20c1,781$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.261,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed HANJIN BRION24c1,651$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.531,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked T174c1,629$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.351,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked HANJIN BRION20c1,600$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked HANJIN BRION32c1,579$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.692,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c8…cf96backed T168c1,490$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.657341.1%30 W · 43 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick32cpaid-15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed T179c1,437$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.8439055.4%216 W · 174 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed HANJIN BRION33c1,402$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.711,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0410…b274backed HANJIN BRION7c1,349$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.426033.3%20 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed T179c1,250$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.471,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be4…1f20backed HANJIN BRION23c1,244$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.1452747.6%251 W · 276 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked T178c1,189$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.6326360.1%158 W · 105 L+1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed HANJIN BRION30c1,178$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.3532160.7%195 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6bb…c0aabacked T180c1,166$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.1733058.5%193 W · 137 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a22…2dcebacked HANJIN BRION7c1,103$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.223046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed HANJIN BRION26c1,088$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.851,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0a…fe3abacked HANJIN BRION18c1,077$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.869738.1%37 W · 60 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed HANJIN BRION22c1,075$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.4224147.3%114 W · 127 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe751…9af6backed HANJIN BRION8c1,074$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8925945.2%117 W · 142 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed HANJIN BRION24c1,071$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.492,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked HANJIN BRION30c1,061$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.22,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe80e…a4c5backed HANJIN BRION18c1,016$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.5318442.4%78 W · 106 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed HANJIN BRION22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22057945.9%266 W · 313 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked HANJIN BRION20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20095847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed T179c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb08…b630backed HANJIN BRION10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017032.9%56 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed HANJIN BRION22c998.75$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.721,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed HANJIN BRION23c992.62$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.321249.1%104 W · 108 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked HANJIN BRION7c976.97$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.391,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed HANJIN BRION22c932.04$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.186144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e48…f025backed T174c931.19$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.117368.5%50 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked HANJIN BRION17c905.77$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.8558420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed HANJIN BRION8c901.22$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.794237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked HANJIN BRION15c887.99$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.237633.5%126 W · 250 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed HANJIN BRION22c886.49$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.779151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c2…eef4backed T180c881.52$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.579259.8%55 W · 37 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked HANJIN BRION22c866.55$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.6495951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed HANJIN BRION43c865.95$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.248035.4%170 W · 310 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed HANJIN BRION12c789.33$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7243539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c4e…6c11backed T177c788.72$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.2536749.9%183 W · 184 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed HANJIN BRION14c770.76$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.391,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71a4…f92ebacked HANJIN BRION24c763.5$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed HANJIN BRION17c756.59$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0512937.2%48 W · 81 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked T179c756.36$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8498956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed HANJIN BRION6c749.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed HANJIN BRION27c716.4$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.7485652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd01…d5acbacked T178c716.32$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5924858.1%144 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…5095backed HANJIN BRION20c714.95$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.996633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed HANJIN BRION4c701.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.085833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4155backed HANJIN BRION22c699.99$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15430243%130 W · 172 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf270…7a37backed T171c698.39$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.999053.3%48 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed HANJIN BRION22c684.13$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.941,22549.6%607 W · 618 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked T156c683.36$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.782,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.