Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: sleepers vs Nightblood Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Swiss Stage Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b350d824a415e46e3803081df32c29bdef17b2404f6a52062c75cd3e9bf7d86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nightblood Gamingof sleepers, Nightblood Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,841 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked sleepers | 69c | 3,987$2,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,748.74 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Nightblood Gaming | 31c | 3,250$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,252.5 | 417 | 34.8%145 W · 272 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697f…b756backed Nightblood Gaming | 29c | 2,852$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.94 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed sleepers | 29c | 2,606$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.78 | 415 | 37.1%154 W · 261 L | -26.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked sleepers | 69c | 1,061$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.3 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Nightblood Gaming | 35c | 956.73$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.35 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Nightblood Gaming | 31c | 812.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.67 | 297 | 33.3%99 W · 198 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nightblood Gaming | 32c | 793.25$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.88 | 231 | 46.8%108 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa070…1af3backed sleepers | 71c | 599.5$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Nightblood Gaming | 29c | 399.98$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.99 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed sleepers | 69c | 362$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.78 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…3a77backed sleepers | 69c | 312.99$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.18 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Nightblood Gaming | 24c | 304.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.47 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Nightblood Gaming | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60c…d2e2backed sleepers | 71c | 288$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.48 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3218…a011backed sleepers | 71c | 288$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa6…cbb7backed sleepers | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nightblood Gaming | 41c | 280$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.18 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Nightblood Gaming | 42c | 267.57$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.5 | 811 | 34.9%283 W · 528 L | -60.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Nightblood Gaming | 33c | 262.89$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.03 | 463 | 26.6%123 W · 340 L | -26.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…39e2backed sleepers | 71c | 234$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed sleepers | 56c | 234$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…8b14backed sleepers | 69c | 215.94$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed sleepers | 71c | 202$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.42 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…92bebacked sleepers | 71c | 174$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed sleepers | 71c | 174$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…47d0backed sleepers | 59c | 170.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 168.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81f…2fd6backed sleepers | 70c | 157$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked sleepers | 66c | 156.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…a39dbacked sleepers | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0d…82c9backed sleepers | 71c | 148$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed sleepers | 69c | 144.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked sleepers | 71c | 144$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Nightblood Gaming | 65c | 137.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed sleepers | 12c | 136.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Nightblood Gaming | 31c | 135.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 353 | 31.2%110 W · 243 L | -29.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Nightblood Gaming | 31c | 130$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Nightblood Gaming | 30c | 113.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.26 | 173 | 49.7%86 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…7ed7backed Nightblood Gaming | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…c125backed sleepers | 71c | 105.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Nightblood Gaming | 29c | 105.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed sleepers | 71c | 88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked sleepers | 70c | 81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked sleepers | 71c | 72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Nightblood Gaming | 30c | 68.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 156 | 42.3%66 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed sleepers | 71c | 63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ab3dbacked sleepers | 72c | 62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4025…8a80backed sleepers | 71c | 60.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed sleepers | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed sleepers | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed sleepers | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…5fa2backed sleepers | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Nightblood Gaming | 70c | 56.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Nightblood Gaming | 28c | 56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…f85fbacked Nightblood Gaming | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Nightblood Gaming | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed sleepers | 72c | 51.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nightblood Gaming | 39c | 48.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 575 | 17.7%102 W · 473 L | -71.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9368…8b01backed Nightblood Gaming | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed sleepers | 68c | 47.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Nightblood Gaming | 57c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed sleepers | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed sleepers | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked sleepers | 70c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Nightblood Gaming | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed sleepers | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…af86backed Nightblood Gaming | 36c | 31.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed sleepers | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked sleepers | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 628 | 56.4%354 W · 274 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…6ee4backed sleepers | 69c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Nightblood Gaming | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 175 | 37.7%66 W · 109 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked sleepers | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -19.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked sleepers | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…dd93backed Nightblood Gaming | 59c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7b…3991backed sleepers | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: sleepers vs Nightblood Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Swiss Stage Group Stagethis page
- Valorant: sleepers vs Nightblood Gaming - Map 1 WinnerNightblood Gaming won
- Valorant: sleepers vs Nightblood Gaming - Map 2 WinnerNightblood Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.