Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bc09e50967ed33a53eee33c041375e7318b44c3b9d140feb6e704051794cac8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Down | 64c | 6,799$4,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,317.95 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Up | 28c | 6,749$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,857.53 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 57c | 3,079$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.25 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Down | 77c | 3,035$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.55 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 72c | 2,517$1,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820.71 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0be…b571backed Up | 28c | 2,225$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +258.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Up | 29c | 2,081$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 41c | 2,074$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.51 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Up | 33c | 1,657$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Up | 29c | 1,279$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +242%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 32c | 1,272$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.17 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 4c | 995.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 308 | 39%120 W · 188 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Up | 24c | 845.57$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.86 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Down | 74c | 726.28$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.28 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 63c | 600$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Down | 79c | 582.26$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafef…a8b1backed Up | 13c | 572.21$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Down | 6c | 538.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 10c | 525.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 154 | 21.4%33 W · 121 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed Down | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 67c | 491.5$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.07 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 36c | 470.16$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.04 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…b2adbacked Down | 67c | 431.26$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 53c | 359.52$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.61 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Up | 39c | 356.35$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.98 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…cb08backed Down | 46c | 330.01$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 55c | 305.75$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.9 | 305 | 43.6%133 W · 172 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Up | 28c | 281.45$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.8 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812d…8f72backed Down | 76c | 280.87$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 43c | 279.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.57 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Down | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Down | 77c | 242.69$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.87 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2732…986abacked Up | 10c | 232.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc4…eb39backed Up | 37c | 206.38$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed Down | 78c | 200.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…23f6backed Up | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Up | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Down | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…5468backed Up | 42c | 200$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Down | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 66c | 199.32$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.55 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…551fbacked Down | 67c | 179.96$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Down | 61c | 177.24$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.24 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Up | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…044cbacked Up | 38c | 150.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…96cabacked Up | 28c | 143.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 61c | 137.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Up | 27c | 134.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff6…1369backed Up | 28c | 127.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Up | 33c | 124$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.9 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Up | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…d178backed Up | 51c | 118.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Up | 23c | 117.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Down | 47c | 112.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…558bbacked Down | 62c | 111.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Down | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…d0dbbacked Up | 37c | 105.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 34cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…83f2backed Down | 78c | 102.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Up | 30c | 101.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…9192backed Down | 42c | 95.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…b959backed Up | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Down | 55c | 83.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 369 | 50.7%187 W · 182 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb937…e990backed Down | 72c | 72.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed Down | 76c | 70.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…d1f0backed Up | 20c | 60.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a6…33d6backed Down | 77c | 45.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd63d…e141backed Down | 76c | 43.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb03e…1091backed Down | 73c | 42.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…79f7backed Up | 45c | 40.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c1…4ebbbacked Up | 31c | 39.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b3…c118backed Down | 76c | 39.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…f156backed Down | 55c | 33.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9b…3351backed Down | 61c | 32.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1210backed Down | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked Down | 61c | 30.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…f4ffbacked Down | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed Up | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebcd…d2efbacked Down | 66c | 18.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…31f1backed Down | 72c | 18.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbb…f6d8backed Down | 57c | 17.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…04a1backed Down | 80c | 13.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.